luckadjusted

Wild Card 2023 · January 14, 2024

Packers at Cowboys, Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Cowboys 48–32 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:47 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 15 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 48
Dallas Cowboys 32

January 14, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7

Luck index +34 Packers lucky · −34 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Cowboys win 3.

  1. 1 GB 57 DAL 30
  2. 2 GB 43 DAL 24
  3. 3 GB 36 DAL 21
  4. 4 GB 38 DAL 26
  5. 5 GB 34 DAL 26
  6. 6 GB 26 DAL 21
  7. 7 GB 30 DAL 28
  8. 8 GB 28 DAL 31
  9. 9 GB 17 DAL 27
  10. 10 GB 17 DAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 66% of them, Cowboys 34%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+22.1%
Packers by 9–1620.3%
Packers by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation4.1%
Cowboys by 1–815.8%
Cowboys by 9–168.3%
Cowboys by 17+5.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Packers by 16, without the luck Packers by 20.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 7 for 66 yards, Cowboys 6 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:22 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (DaRon Bland), 5 yards +2% GB +1.1 pts
Q1 7:30 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 3 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q1 4:03 Fair Catch Interference on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 15 yards +4% GB +0.9 pts
Q1 0:06 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 10 yards +5% DAL +2.0 pts
Q2 9:24 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.1 pts
Q2 1:43 Horse Collar Tackle on the Packers (Quay Walker), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.5 pts
Q3 13:06 Face Mask on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 15 yards 0% GB +1.4 pts
Q3 6:38 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 10 yards 0% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 3:50 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Preston Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 3:12 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 1 yard 0% DAL +0.1 pts
Q3 3:03 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 10 yards 0% GB 0.0 pts
Q4 5:52 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 3:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 15 yards 0% DAL +2.3 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:53 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +4% DAL DAL: Punt
2 Q1 4:07 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedC. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 281 catchable balls before this +5% GB DAL: Punt
3 Q1 4:03 Fair Catch Interference on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1183 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +4% GB GB: Punt
4 Q1 3:02 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% GB GB: Punt
5 Q1 0:47 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% GB DAL: Punt
6 Q1 0:06 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 815 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +5% DAL DAL: Punt
7 Q2 12:00 C. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 282 catchable balls before this +4% GB DAL: Punt
8 Q2 2:00 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +9% GB DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • AJ Dillon (GB RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Packers by 16
Luck in points
4.1 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 20.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 66% · Cowboys 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2023 games · Packers · Cowboys

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