luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · December 28, 2023–December 31

Week 17 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Jets 37–20 in a game they win 28% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 17 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 35–31 @ Eagles 19% 53% Coin flip
Steelers 30–23 @ Seahawks 37% 65% Deserved
Saints 23–13 @ Buccaneers 43% 58% Coin flip
Packers 33–10 @ Vikings 47% 96% Deserved

Week 17 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 37–20 vs Jets 28% +72
2 Cowboys W 20–19 vs Lions 39% +61
3 Cardinals W 35–31 @ Eagles 53% +47
4 Saints W 23–13 @ Buccaneers 58% +42
5 Colts W 23–20 vs Raiders 60% +40
6 Steelers W 30–23 @ Seahawks 65% +35
7 Broncos W 16–9 vs Chargers 69% +31
8 Bills W 27–21 vs Patriots 77% +23
9 Texans W 26–3 vs Titans 84% +16
10 Rams W 26–25 @ Giants 88% +12
11 Chiefs W 25–17 vs Bengals 89% +11
12 Bears W 37–17 vs Falcons 90% +10
13 Ravens W 56–19 vs Dolphins 92% +8
14 Jaguars W 26–0 vs Panthers 95% +5
15 Packers W 33–10 @ Vikings 96% +4
16 49ers W 27–10 @ Commanders 98% +2
17 Commanders L 10–27 vs 49ers 2% −2
18 Vikings L 10–33 vs Packers 4% −4
19 Panthers L 0–26 @ Jaguars 5% −5
20 Dolphins L 19–56 @ Ravens 8% −8
21 Falcons L 17–37 @ Bears 10% −10
22 Bengals L 17–25 @ Chiefs 11% −11
23 Giants L 25–26 vs Rams 12% −12
24 Titans L 3–26 @ Texans 16% −16
25 Patriots L 21–27 @ Bills 23% −23
26 Chargers L 9–16 @ Broncos 31% −31
27 Seahawks L 23–30 vs Steelers 35% −35
28 Raiders L 20–23 @ Colts 40% −40
29 Buccaneers L 13–23 vs Saints 42% −42
30 Eagles L 31–35 vs Cardinals 47% −47
31 Lions L 19–20 @ Cowboys 61% −61
32 Jets L 20–37 @ Browns 72% −72