luckadjusted

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Raiders at Colts, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Raiders 23–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 34 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Colts were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:19 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 12 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 20
Indianapolis Colts 23

December 31, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3.5

Luck index +40 Colts lucky · −40 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 LV 27 IND 10
  2. 2 LV 26 IND 16
  3. 3 LV 17 IND 12
  4. 4 LV 12 IND 10
  5. 5 LV 17 IND 19
  6. 6 LV 13 IND 17
  7. 7 LV 26 IND 33
  8. 8 LV 10 IND 20
  9. 9 LV 6 IND 20
  10. 10 LV 6 IND 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 40% of them, Colts 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+5.3%
Raiders by 9–1612.3%
Raiders by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation2.2%
Colts by 1–829.0%
Colts by 9–1617.3%
Colts by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Colts by 3, without the luck Colts by 14.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Gay, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Gay, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 45 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 7 for 54 yards, Colts 5 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:47 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 4:57 False Start on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.4 pts
Q1 0:02 False Start on the Raiders, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +1.1 pts
Q2 13:18 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% LV +1.4 pts
Q2 10:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 5 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 7:12 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +1.1 pts
Q3 11:49 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 11:43 Roughing the Kicker on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yards +6% LV +2.6 pts
Q3 2:31 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% LV +2.4 pts
Q4 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 12 yards, wiping out the play +20% LV +5.3 pts
Q4 3:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 26 yards +3% IND +2.8 pts
Q4 3:20 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Jack Jones), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +1.0 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:00 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +15% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:28 The Raiders converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q2 13:43 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% IND IND: Punt
4 Q2 11:32 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedM. Alie-Cox dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 32 catchable balls before this +9% LV IND: Punt
5 Q2 4:02 The Colts converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +13% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:42 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q3 2:31 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% LV LV: Punt
8 Q4 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 762 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +20% LV LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 4% · Colts 96%

Final margin
Colts by 3
Luck in points
11.6 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 14.6
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 40% · Colts 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Raiders · Colts

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