luckadjusted

Week 2 2023 · September 17, 2023

Commanders at Broncos, Week 2 2023: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Broncos 35–33, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): the Broncos’ two-point try failed, worth 27 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 35
Denver Broncos 33

September 17, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −4

Luck index +54 Commanders lucky · −54 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 37 DEN 14
  2. 2 WAS 37 DEN 23
  3. 3 WAS 23 DEN 13
  4. 4 WAS 19 DEN 14
  5. 5 WAS 20 DEN 18
  6. 6 WAS 41 DEN 44
  7. 7 WAS 12 DEN 19
  8. 8 WAS 13 DEN 24
  9. 9 WAS 10 DEN 25
  10. 10 WAS 6 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 46% of them, Broncos 54%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+11.0%
Commanders by 9–1614.0%
Commanders by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation5.4%
Broncos by 1–821.8%
Broncos by 9–1616.1%
Broncos by 17+11.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 2, without the luck Broncos by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 49 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. Slye, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Slye, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Slye, 59 yds missed · 55% expected
  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Lutz, 32 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 8 for 71 yards, Broncos 9 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:34 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Zach Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q1 0:24 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Jamin Davis), 15 yards +2% DEN +1.2 pts
Q2 7:17 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% WAS +1.6 pts
Q2 6:34 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +2% DEN +1.0 pts
Q2 5:24 Face Mask on the Broncos (Nik Bonitto), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% WAS +2.2 pts
Q2 1:52 Disqualification on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 1 yard 0% WAS +0.1 pts
Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DEN +2.2 pts
Q3 13:11 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.6 pts
Q3 12:59 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 2:11 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Jahan Dotson), 10 yards +4% DEN +1.0 pts
Q3 1:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 7 yards +5% WAS +1.7 pts
Q4 13:25 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders (Emmanuel Forbes), 5 yards +1% DEN +0.3 pts
Q4 12:32 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Broncos (Tremon Smith), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q4 11:17 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% WAS +2.1 pts
Q4 3:46 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders (Chase Young), 12 yards +2% DEN +1.3 pts
Q4 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Chase Young), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 0:48 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.1 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 96%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:07 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% DEN WAS: Missed field goal
3 Q1 10:22 J. Slye missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 32 of 47 from 45+ before +8% DEN WAS: Field goal
4 Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q3 6:17 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q3 2:56 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% WAS DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 11:17 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 3043 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:00 The Broncos’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +27% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Dulcich (DEN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 39% · Broncos 61%

Final margin
Commanders by 2
Luck in points
5.2 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 46% · Broncos 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2023 games · Commanders · Broncos

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