luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · September 14, 2023–September 18

Week 2 2023: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Falcons beat the Packers 25–24 in a game they win 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 2 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Seahawks 37–31 @ Lions 37% 67% Deserved
Commanders 35–33 @ Broncos 38% 46% Coin flip
Ravens 27–24 @ Bengals 40% 54% Coin flip
Titans 27–24 vs Chargers 43% 60% Deserved
Steelers 26–22 vs Browns 43% 49% Coin flip

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Falcons W 25–24 vs Packers 38% +62
2 Commanders W 35–33 @ Broncos 46% +54
3 Steelers W 26–22 vs Browns 49% +51
4 Ravens W 27–24 @ Bengals 54% +46
5 Chiefs W 17–9 @ Jaguars 55% +45
6 Titans W 27–24 vs Chargers 60% +40
7 49ers W 30–23 @ Rams 66% +34
8 Seahawks W 37–31 @ Lions 67% +33
9 Colts W 31–20 @ Texans 77% +23
10 Giants W 31–28 @ Cardinals 79% +21
11 Eagles W 34–28 vs Vikings 81% +19
12 Bills W 38–10 vs Raiders 84% +16
13 Dolphins W 24–17 @ Patriots 88% +12
14 Saints W 20–17 @ Panthers 91% +10
15 Cowboys W 30–10 vs Jets 94% +6
16 Buccaneers W 27–17 vs Bears 95% +5
17 Bears L 17–27 @ Buccaneers 5% −5
18 Jets L 10–30 @ Cowboys 6% −6
19 Panthers L 17–20 vs Saints 10% −10
20 Patriots L 17–24 vs Dolphins 12% −12
21 Raiders L 10–38 @ Bills 16% −16
22 Vikings L 28–34 @ Eagles 19% −19
23 Cardinals L 28–31 vs Giants 21% −21
24 Texans L 20–31 vs Colts 23% −23
25 Lions L 31–37 vs Seahawks 33% −33
26 Rams L 23–30 vs 49ers 34% −34
27 Chargers L 24–27 @ Titans 40% −40
28 Jaguars L 9–17 vs Chiefs 45% −45
29 Bengals L 24–27 vs Ravens 46% −46
30 Browns L 22–26 @ Steelers 51% −51
31 Broncos L 33–35 vs Commanders 54% −54
32 Packers L 24–25 @ Falcons 62% −62