luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Jets at Broncos, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Broncos 31–21, but the Broncos played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 33 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:41 left): Return touchdown by the Jets, worth 37 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 31
Denver Broncos 21

October 8, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −2.5

Luck index +63 Jets very lucky · −63 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 4, Broncos win 6.

  1. 1 NYJ 23 DEN 3
  2. 2 NYJ 20 DEN 8
  3. 3 NYJ 27 DEN 20
  4. 4 NYJ 24 DEN 21
  5. 5 NYJ 7 DEN 10
  6. 6 NYJ 3 DEN 9
  7. 7 NYJ 14 DEN 23
  8. 8 NYJ 21 DEN 33
  9. 9 NYJ 7 DEN 23
  10. 10 NYJ 2 DEN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 37% of them, Broncos 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+5.8%
Jets by 9–1610.9%
Jets by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Broncos by 1–824.1%
Broncos by 9–1620.3%
Broncos by 17+17.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 10, without the luck Jets by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 9 for 71 yards, Broncos 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:27 False Start on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.5 pts
Q1 8:15 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Adam Trautman), 10 yards +3% NYJ +1.6 pts
Q1 7:48 Illegal Contact on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 5 yards +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q1 5:37 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +1.2 pts
Q1 4:24 Intentional Grounding on the Broncos (Russell Wilson), 6 yards +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q1 4:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Nick Bawden), 10 yards +4% DEN +1.3 pts
Q2 6:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 15 yards +5% DEN +2.3 pts
Q2 5:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 13:29 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +3% DEN +1.3 pts
Q4 13:48 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q4 6:47 Roughing the Passer on the Jets, 15 yards +3% DEN +1.8 pts
Q4 4:44 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 1 yard 0% DEN 0.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:00 The Broncos fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYJ DEN: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:33 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q3 3:59 The Jets fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DEN NYJ: Field goal
4 Q3 3:16 The Broncos fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYJ DEN: Punt
5 Q4 3:56 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +13% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
6 Q4 2:21 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +21% DEN NYJ: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 1:04 The Broncos converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 0:41 The Broncos fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +37% NYJ DEN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • K'Waun Williams (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Dulcich (DEN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Duane Brown (NYJ T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Reed (NYJ CB), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 85% · Broncos 15%

Final margin
Jets by 10
Luck in points
1.8 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Jets 37% · Broncos 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Jets · Broncos

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