luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · January 14, 2023–January 16

Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Ravens 24–17 in a game they win 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Wild Card 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 31–24 @ Vikings 43% 49% Coin flip
Jaguars 31–30 vs Chargers 44% 67% Deserved

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 24–17 vs Ravens 38% +62
2 Giants W 31–24 @ Vikings 49% +51
3 Jaguars W 31–30 vs Chargers 67% +33
4 49ers W 41–23 vs Seahawks 84% +16
5 Bills W 34–31 vs Dolphins 93% +7
6 Cowboys W 31–14 @ Buccaneers 95% +5
7 Buccaneers L 14–31 vs Cowboys 5% −5
8 Dolphins L 31–34 @ Bills 7% −7
9 Seahawks L 23–41 @ 49ers 16% −16
10 Chargers L 30–31 @ Jaguars 33% −33
11 Vikings L 24–31 vs Giants 51% −51
12 Ravens L 17–24 @ Bengals 62% −62