luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 40–34 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:28 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 30 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 34
Dallas Cowboys 40

December 24, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −4

Luck index +34 Cowboys lucky · −34 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 22 DAL 6
  2. 2 PHI 28 DAL 20
  3. 3 PHI 17 DAL 14
  4. 4 PHI 21 DAL 23
  5. 5 PHI 20 DAL 24
  6. 6 PHI 10 DAL 17
  7. 7 PHI 10 DAL 20
  8. 8 PHI 16 DAL 30
  9. 9 PHI 21 DAL 40
  10. 10 PHI 14 DAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 34% of them, Cowboys 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+5.3%
Eagles by 9–1610.5%
Eagles by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Cowboys by 1–827.9%
Cowboys by 9–1618.6%
Cowboys by 17+18.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 6, without the luck Cowboys by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. Maher, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. Maher, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • B. Maher, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 2 for 10 yards, Cowboys 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:58 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards +10% DAL +3.5 pts
Q2 1:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 0:25 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 4:20 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys, 6 yards +2% PHI +0.1 pts
Q4 1:44 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.1 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:28 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +30% PHI DAL: Touchdown
2 Q3 2:19 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +17% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:13 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:03 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +20% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:02 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 303rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +19% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:24 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% DAL PHI: Turnover
7 Q4 2:24 B. Maher made 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 15 of 25 from 45+ before +14% DAL DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:20 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +19% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI QB), out, replaced by g.minshew · 0.9 pts
  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 41% · Cowboys 59%

Final margin
Cowboys by 6
Luck in points
3.9 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 34% · Cowboys 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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