luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Raiders at Steelers, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Raiders 13–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: drops alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 2:18 left): Face Mask on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Steelers. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:36 left): the Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 13

December 24, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −2.5

Luck index +21 Steelers about even · −21 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 LV 23 PIT 12
  2. 2 LV 27 PIT 24
  3. 3 LV 17 PIT 19
  4. 4 LV 13 PIT 17
  5. 5 LV 14 PIT 22
  6. 6 LV 14 PIT 25
  7. 7 LV 13 PIT 26
  8. 8 LV 6 PIT 23
  9. 9 LV 3 PIT 23
  10. 10 LV 15 PIT 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 21% of them, Steelers 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.8%
Raiders by 9–165.7%
Raiders by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation2.4%
Steelers by 1–827.3%
Steelers by 9–1622.7%
Steelers by 17+28.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.4 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Steelers by 3, without the luck Steelers by 12.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 43 yds missed · 75% expected
  • C. Boswell, 44 yds made · 73% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Boswell, 52 yds missed · 60% expected
  • C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 2 for 20 yards, Steelers 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 14:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Pat Freiermuth), 10 yards +3% LV +1.5 pts
Q3 5:46 False Start on the Raiders (Darren Waller), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 2:18 Face Mask on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 15 yards, wiping out the play +16% PIT +4.8 pts
Q4 13:41 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +4% LV +1.3 pts
Q4 0:36 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yards +5% LV +1.4 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:14 The Raiders converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +10% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:00 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedP. Freiermuth dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 61 catchable balls before this +9% LV PIT: Field goal
3 Q2 0:32 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +12% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q3 2:18 The game turned hereFace Mask on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 2804 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +16% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q4 11:59 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 3:07 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% PIT LV: Punt
7 Q4 1:05 N. Harris dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 44 catchable balls before this +12% LV PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:36 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +34% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terrell Edmunds (PIT SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Averett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 4% · Steelers 96%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
9.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 12.4
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 21% · Steelers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Raiders · Steelers

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