Week 7 2022 · October 23, 2022
Giants at Jaguars, Week 7 2022: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat the Jaguars 23–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
An off day for the Jaguars: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:32 left): M. Jones dropped a catchable pass, worth 25 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 New York Giants | 23 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Giants about even · −21 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 8, Jaguars win 2.
- 1 NYG 35 JAX 10
- 2 NYG 26 JAX 7
- 3 NYG 35 JAX 20
- 4 NYG 29 JAX 16
- 5 NYG 19 JAX 10
- 6 NYG 23 JAX 16
- 7 NYG 14 JAX 10
- 8 NYG 21 JAX 19
- 9 NYG 20 JAX 24
- 10 NYG 14 JAX 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jaguars
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.04 | better by 0.12 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.21 | +0.12 | worse by 0.09 |
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.21 | +0.07 | better by 0.14 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.14 | worse by 0.02 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 79% of them, Jaguars 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 27.6% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 21.8% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 29.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 5.3% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Patterson, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- G. Gano, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- Extra point missed · 88% expected
Penalties: Giants 8 for 67 yards, Jaguars 13 for 81 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:58 | Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards | +2% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q1 6:58 | Illegal Formation on the Giants, 1 yard · pre-snap | +2% NYG 0.0 pts |
| Q1 5:53 | Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +9% NYG +3.3 pts |
| Q1 5:24 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards | +4% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q2 9:01 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Marcus Johnson), 9 yards | +3% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:46 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% NYG +2.2 pts |
| Q2 4:54 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 15 yards | +3% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Julian Love), 15 yards | +3% JAX +2.1 pts |
| Q3 14:09 | Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 7 yards | +4% JAX +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:45 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYG 0.0 pts |
| Q3 8:02 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 11 yards, wiping out the play | +19% NYG +4.1 pts |
| Q3 2:08 | Defensive Offside on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:34 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +4% NYG +1.4 pts |
| Q4 5:39 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 10 yards | +6% NYG +2.0 pts |
| Q4 5:35 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYG 0.0 pts |
| Q4 5:35 | Encroachment on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYG 0.0 pts |
| Q4 5:31 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:51 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +12% JAX +1.3 pts |
| Q4 0:42 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +13% JAX +3.8 pts |
| Q4 0:32 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:22 | Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards | +12% JAX +1.6 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 8:02 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3170 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 | +19% NYG | NYG: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q3 6:22 | The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +17% JAX | NYG: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 11:30 | The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +11% NYG | JAX: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 0:51 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2204 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +12% JAX | JAX: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 0:42 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +13% JAX | JAX: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 0:32 | M. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 24 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +25% NYG | JAX: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:22 | Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2870 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 | +12% JAX | JAX: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +22% NYG | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Oshane Ximines (NYG LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 59% · Jaguars 41%
- Final margin
- Giants by 6
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 79% · Jaguars 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2022 games · 
Giants · 
Jaguars
More from Week 7 2022
- Saints at Cardinals ARI 42–34 · replay 10% for the winner
- Falcons at Bengals CIN 35–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 23–20 · replay 52% for the winner
- Lions at Cowboys DAL 24–6 · replay 52% for the winner
- Packers at Commanders WAS 23–21 · replay 15% for the winner
- Colts at Titans TEN 19–10 · replay 41% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers CAR 21–3 · replay 67% for the winner
- Texans at Raiders LV 38–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Broncos NYJ 16–9 · replay 75% for the winner
- Chiefs at 49ers KC 44–23 · replay 93% for the winner
- Seahawks at Chargers SEA 37–23 · replay 93% for the winner
- Steelers at Dolphins MIA 16–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bears at Patriots CHI 33–14 · replay 41% for the winner