luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Jets at Bills, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 32–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 72% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 6
Buffalo Bills 32

November 19, 2023 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −8

Luck index 0 Bills about even · 0 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 9 BUF 14
  2. 2 NYJ 9 BUF 19
  3. 3 NYJ 7 BUF 20
  4. 4 NYJ 10 BUF 26
  5. 5 NYJ 7 BUF 26
  6. 6 NYJ 11 BUF 33
  7. 7 NYJ 7 BUF 33
  8. 8 NYJ 3 BUF 32
  9. 9 NYJ 3 BUF 36
  10. 10 NYJ 9 BUF 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 0% of them, Bills 100%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.0%
Jets by 9–160.0%
Jets by 1–80.3%
Level after regulation0.2%
Bills by 1–81.3%
Bills by 9–168.0%
Bills by 17+90.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 26, without the luck Bills by 20.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • T. Bass, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • T. Bass, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 5 for 35 yards, Bills 8 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q1 0:49 Illegal Shift on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q2 14:09 Illegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +2.9 pts
Q2 6:12 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q2 5:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 3:53 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards +1% BUF +1.8 pts
Q2 1:10 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 15 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 0:22 Defensive Offside on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.1 pts
Q2 0:02 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q3 14:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 15 yards +3% BUF +2.3 pts
Q3 9:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 7 yards, wiping out the play +2% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q4 12:21 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.4 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Jets fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% BUF NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 14:15 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% NYJ BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 13:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 1882 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +4% NYJ NYJ: Punt
4 Q1 13:03 Bre.Hall dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +4% BUF NYJ: Punt
5 Q1 10:55 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 Q2 14:09 Illegal Contact on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3724 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q2 0:02 The Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% NYJ BUF: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:41 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 26
Luck in points
5.5 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 20.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 0% · Bills 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Jets · Bills

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