luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Seahawks at Rams, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Seahawks 17–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Rams were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:08 left): J. Myers missed 55-yard field goal, worth 33 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 16
Los Angeles Rams 17

November 19, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −2.5

Luck index +24 Rams about even · −24 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 SEA 23 LA 10
  2. 2 SEA 23 LA 20
  3. 3 SEA 20 LA 21
  4. 4 SEA 20 LA 23
  5. 5 SEA 13 LA 19
  6. 6 SEA 20 LA 28
  7. 7 SEA 13 LA 24
  8. 8 SEA 20 LA 34
  9. 9 SEA 9 LA 26
  10. 10 SEA 12 LA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 24% of them, Rams 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+2.7%
Seahawks by 9–166.8%
Seahawks by 1–813.7%
Level after regulation4.0%
Rams by 1–826.3%
Rams by 9–1623.2%
Rams by 17+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Rams by 1, without the luck Rams by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Myers, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 55 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 12 for 130 yards, Rams 9 for 92 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 15 yards +5% SEA +1.4 pts
Q1 5:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Julian Love), 45 yards +7% LA +3.0 pts
Q1 5:20 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q1 5:08 Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Cooper Kupp), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SEA +3.4 pts
Q1 4:35 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Leonard Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.4 pts
Q1 3:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 14 yards +6% LA +1.7 pts
Q1 1:31 False Start on the Seahawks (Noah Fant), 3 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.2 pts
Q2 10:47 Illegal Shift on the Seahawks (Jake Bobo), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +1.4 pts
Q2 10:13 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.3 pts
Q2 4:57 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 14 yards +3% LA +0.7 pts
Q3 12:44 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% SEA +2.4 pts
Q3 12:11 Kick Catch Interference on the Rams (Duke Shelley), 15 yards +2% SEA +1.5 pts
Q3 9:23 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Colby Parkinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LA +2.3 pts
Q3 3:17 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Ben Skowronek), 4 yards +1% SEA +0.3 pts
Q3 1:49 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 8 yards +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 14:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 15 yards +4% LA +1.7 pts
Q4 9:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% SEA +3.2 pts
Q4 8:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 4 yards +8% LA +2.0 pts
Q4 6:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Rams, 15 yards +11% SEA +1.4 pts
Q4 5:52 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 5:46 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards +13% LA +2.0 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:33 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:33 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q4 9:05 Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Tyler Higbee), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 4250 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +12% SEA SEA: Turnover
4 Q4 6:51 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Rams, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% LA SEA: Missed field goal
5 Q4 5:52 T. Atwell dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 56 catchable balls before thisFalse Start on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +13% SEA LA: Field goal
6 Q4 5:46 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1855 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% LA LA: Field goal
7 Q4 0:41 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +26% SEA SEA: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:08 J. Myers missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 32 of 43 from 45+ before +33% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyren Williams (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cobie Durant (LA CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Uchenna Nwosu (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 33% · Rams 67%

Final margin
Rams by 1
Luck in points
2.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 24% · Rams 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Seahawks · Rams

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