luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Cardinals at Texans, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Cardinals 21–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 8, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 16
Houston Texans 21

November 19, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5.5

Luck index +27 Texans lucky · −27 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 3, Texans win 7.

  1. 1 ARI 45 HOU 28
  2. 2 ARI 20 HOU 13
  3. 3 ARI 27 HOU 24
  4. 4 ARI 26 HOU 29
  5. 5 ARI 24 HOU 30
  6. 6 ARI 16 HOU 24
  7. 7 ARI 15 HOU 27
  8. 8 ARI 13 HOU 30
  9. 9 ARI 13 HOU 34
  10. 10 ARI 13 HOU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 27% of them, Texans 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+3.4%
Cardinals by 9–167.4%
Cardinals by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.8%
Texans by 1–825.8%
Texans by 9–1621.3%
Texans by 17+23.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 5, without the luck Texans by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 57 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 5 for 50 yards, Texans 3 for 19 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:19 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Steven Nelson), 5 yards +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q1 13:28 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q1 4:07 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 0:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 15 yards +3% HOU +1.4 pts
Q3 4:52 Face Mask on the Texans (Will Anderson), 9 yards +3% ARI +1.2 pts
Q3 1:30 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Kei'Trel Clark), 10 yards +5% HOU +1.0 pts
Q4 8:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yards +7% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 4:18 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:54 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:55 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q1 1:26 M. Prater made 57-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 42 of 58 from 45+ before +8% ARI ARI: Turnover
4 Q3 2:57 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:54 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +11% HOU ARI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 11:38 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% ARI HOU: Punt
7 Q4 8:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3869 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 0:35 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +18% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Wilson (ARI WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jonathan Ledbetter (ARI DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 34% · Texans 66%

Final margin
Texans by 5
Luck in points
3.1 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 27% · Texans 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Cardinals · Texans

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