luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · November 16, 2023–November 20

Week 11 2023: who deserved to win

4 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Commanders 31–19 in a game they win 29% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 11 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 31–19 @ Commanders 29% 29% Lucky
Packers 23–20 vs Chargers 41% 33% Lucky
Eagles 21–17 @ Chiefs 43% 42% Coin flip

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 31–19 @ Commanders 29% +71
2 Packers W 23–20 vs Chargers 33% +67
3 Eagles W 21–17 @ Chiefs 42% +58
4 Browns W 13–10 vs Steelers 46% +54
5 Texans W 21–16 vs Cardinals 73% +27
6 Jaguars W 34–14 vs Titans 74% +26
7 Rams W 17–16 vs Seahawks 76% +24
8 Lions W 31–26 vs Bears 79% +21
9 Broncos W 21–20 vs Vikings 83% +17
10 Dolphins W 20–13 vs Raiders 89% +11
11 Cowboys W 33–10 @ Panthers 94% +6
12 Ravens W 34–20 vs Bengals 96% +4
13 49ers W 27–14 vs Buccaneers 98% +2
14 Bills W 32–6 vs Jets 100% 0
15 Jets L 6–32 @ Bills 0% 0
16 Buccaneers L 14–27 @ 49ers 2% −2
17 Bengals L 20–34 @ Ravens 4% −4
18 Panthers L 10–33 vs Cowboys 6% −6
19 Raiders L 13–20 @ Dolphins 11% −11
20 Vikings L 20–21 @ Broncos 17% −17
21 Bears L 26–31 @ Lions 21% −21
22 Seahawks L 16–17 @ Rams 24% −24
23 Titans L 14–34 @ Jaguars 26% −26
24 Cardinals L 16–21 @ Texans 27% −27
25 Steelers L 10–13 @ Browns 54% −54
26 Chiefs L 17–21 vs Eagles 58% −58
27 Chargers L 20–23 @ Packers 67% −67
28 Commanders L 19–31 vs Giants 71% −71