luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · November 9, 2023–November 13

Week 10 2023: who deserved to win

5 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Ravens 33–31 in a game they win 14% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 10 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Broncos 24–22 @ Bills 29% 33% Lucky
Browns 33–31 @ Ravens 33% 14% Lucky
Texans 30–27 @ Bengals 34% 83% Deserved
Vikings 27–19 vs Saints 41% 97% Deserved
Cardinals 25–23 vs Falcons 44% 46% Coin flip
Raiders 16–12 vs Jets 47% 48% Coin flip

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 33–31 @ Ravens 14% +86
2 Broncos W 24–22 @ Bills 33% +67
3 Cardinals W 25–23 vs Falcons 46% +54
4 Raiders W 16–12 vs Jets 48% +52
5 Steelers W 23–19 vs Packers 49% +51
6 Seahawks W 29–26 vs Commanders 55% +45
7 Lions W 41–38 @ Chargers 67% +33
8 Colts W 10–6 @ Patriots 77% +23
9 Texans W 30–27 @ Bengals 83% +17
10 Buccaneers W 20–6 vs Titans 90% +10
11 Bears W 16–13 vs Panthers 94% +6
12 49ers W 34–3 @ Jaguars 95% +5
13 Vikings W 27–19 vs Saints 97% +3
14 Cowboys W 49–17 vs Giants 100% 0
15 Giants L 17–49 @ Cowboys 0% 0
16 Saints L 19–27 @ Vikings 3% −3
17 Jaguars L 3–34 vs 49ers 5% −5
18 Panthers L 13–16 @ Bears 6% −6
19 Titans L 6–20 @ Buccaneers 10% −10
20 Bengals L 27–30 vs Texans 17% −17
21 Patriots L 6–10 vs Colts 23% −23
22 Chargers L 38–41 vs Lions 33% −33
23 Commanders L 26–29 @ Seahawks 45% −45
24 Packers L 19–23 @ Steelers 51% −51
25 Jets L 12–16 @ Raiders 52% −52
26 Falcons L 23–25 @ Cardinals 54% −54
27 Bills L 22–24 vs Broncos 67% −67
28 Ravens L 31–33 vs Browns 86% −86