luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Browns at Rams, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Browns 36–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:47 left): Illegal Formation on the Browns (Cedric Tillman), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Cleveland Browns 19
Los Angeles Rams 36

December 3, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +32 Rams lucky · −32 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 27 LA 13
  2. 2 CLE 16 LA 9
  3. 3 CLE 20 LA 17
  4. 4 CLE 24 LA 26
  5. 5 CLE 27 LA 31
  6. 6 CLE 21 LA 29
  7. 7 CLE 16 LA 28
  8. 8 CLE 10 LA 24
  9. 9 CLE 20 LA 41
  10. 10 CLE 12 LA 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 32% of them, Rams 68%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+4.5%
Browns by 9–1610.4%
Browns by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Rams by 1–824.5%
Rams by 9–1620.0%
Rams by 17+20.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 17, without the luck Rams by 15.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • L. Havrisik, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • L. Havrisik, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 7 for 86 yards, Rams 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:45 Encroachment on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts
Q1 8:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Juan Thornhill), 15 yards +5% LA +2.1 pts
Q1 2:19 Encroachment on the Rams (Troy Reeder), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.5 pts
Q1 1:27 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LA +2.1 pts
Q1 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 41 yards +6% LA +2.6 pts
Q2 5:39 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards 0% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 3:25 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 5 yards 0% LA +0.1 pts
Q3 6:47 Illegal Formation on the Browns (Cedric Tillman), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% LA +2.7 pts
Q3 3:40 False Start on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.5 pts
Q3 2:39 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q3 2:08 False Start on the Rams (Cooper Kupp), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 8:49 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Demarcus Robinson), 10 yards +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 2:37 False Start on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.8 pts
Q4 1:56 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Joe Flacco), 11 yards 0% LA +0.7 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Browns converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 15:00 L. Havrisik missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +7% CLE LA: Punt
3 Q2 8:31 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedA. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 148 catchable balls before this +9% LA CLE: Punt
4 Q2 0:53 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q3 6:47 Illegal Formation on the Browns (Cedric Tillman), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 302 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +12% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:49 The Browns missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the timeOffensive Holding on the Rams (Demarcus Robinson), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 3475 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% LA CLE: Turnover
7 Q4 6:51 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% LA CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 3:51 The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 17
Luck in points
1.9 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Browns 32% · Rams 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Browns · Rams

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