luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Cardinals at Steelers, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Steelers 24–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:20 left): the Cardinals converted 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 24
Pittsburgh Steelers 10

December 3, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6

Luck index +58 Cardinals lucky · −58 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 4, Steelers win 6.

  1. 1 ARI 19 PIT 3
  2. 2 ARI 13 PIT 3
  3. 3 ARI 17 PIT 10
  4. 4 ARI 29 PIT 27
  5. 5 ARI 21 PIT 23
  6. 6 ARI 17 PIT 21
  7. 7 ARI 10 PIT 17
  8. 8 ARI 7 PIT 17
  9. 9 ARI 6 PIT 20
  10. 10 ARI 7 PIT 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 42% of them, Steelers 58%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+4.7%
Cardinals by 9–1613.9%
Cardinals by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation3.0%
Steelers by 1–829.9%
Steelers by 9–1616.6%
Steelers by 17+11.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.0 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 14, without the luck Cardinals by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 51 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds missed · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 6 for 51 yards, Steelers 9 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Elandon Roberts), 15 yards +11% ARI +2.7 pts
Q1 7:53 False Start on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 14:56 Fair Catch Interference on the Steelers (Miles Killebrew), 15 yards +1% ARI +1.1 pts
Q2 14:48 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Robinson), 5 yards +3% ARI +0.8 pts
Q2 12:04 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% ARI +1.7 pts
Q2 11:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Divaad Wilson), 16 yards +5% PIT +1.8 pts
Q2 1:20 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards +6% PIT +1.1 pts
Q3 11:33 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% ARI +2.2 pts
Q3 8:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 7 yards +4% ARI +2.1 pts
Q3 5:17 False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 2:38 False Start on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 13:16 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +5.9 pts
Q4 10:49 Face Mask on the Steelers (Miles Killebrew), 15 yards 0% ARI +1.1 pts
Q4 5:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Jonathan Ledbetter), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 3:33 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.7 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Elandon Roberts), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2959 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +11% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q2 13:01 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedR. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 82 catchable balls before this +7% PIT ARI: Punt
3 Q2 4:59 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +10% ARI PIT: End of half
4 Q2 3:58 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:05 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:47 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:20 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +16% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:33 Illegal Formation on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Montravius Adams (PIT NT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Michael Wilson (ARI WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Antonio Hamilton (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kyzir White (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 51% · Steelers 49%

Final margin
Cardinals by 14
Luck in points
12.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 42% · Steelers 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Cardinals · Steelers

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