luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Dolphins at Eagles, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Dolphins 31–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:08 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 34 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 17
Philadelphia Eagles 31

October 22, 2023 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +52 Eagles lucky · −52 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 MIA 34 PHI 10
  2. 2 MIA 38 PHI 23
  3. 3 MIA 26 PHI 16
  4. 4 MIA 31 PHI 26
  5. 5 MIA 22 PHI 20
  6. 6 MIA 21 PHI 23
  7. 7 MIA 17 PHI 21
  8. 8 MIA 21 PHI 30
  9. 9 MIA 6 PHI 18
  10. 10 MIA 7 PHI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 52% of them, Eagles 48%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+9.3%
Dolphins by 9–1614.3%
Dolphins by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation6.6%
Eagles by 1–823.5%
Eagles by 9–1613.9%
Eagles by 17+8.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 14, without the luck Eagles by 7.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 40 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 10 for 70 yards, Eagles 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:03 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% MIA 0.0 pts
Q1 7:54 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q1 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% PHI +4.1 pts
Q2 12:10 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 15 yards +4% PHI +2.0 pts
Q2 7:18 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Eli Apple), 5 yards +3% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 2:14 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q3 11:37 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 10:28 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.3 pts
Q4 14:18 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 6:07 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +1.1 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:09 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q1 4:32 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +27% MIA PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:45 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:20 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedT. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 200 catchable balls before this +10% PHI MIA: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 4:08 The Eagles were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +34% MIA PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:14 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% MIA MIA: Turnover
8 Q4 11:33 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Dolphins were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% PHI MIA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Reed Blankenship (PHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Xavien Howard (MIA CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Connor Williams (MIA G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Keion Crossen (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 8% · Eagles 92%

Final margin
Eagles by 14
Luck in points
6.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 52% · Eagles 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Dolphins · Eagles

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