luckadjusted

Week 7 2023 · October 22, 2023

Steelers at Rams, Week 7 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Rams 24–17, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:00 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 14 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Los Angeles Rams 17

October 22, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +79 Steelers very lucky · −79 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 PIT 32 LA 20
  2. 2 PIT 20 LA 17
  3. 3 PIT 24 LA 26
  4. 4 PIT 20 LA 24
  5. 5 PIT 21 LA 28
  6. 6 PIT 16 LA 26
  7. 7 PIT 19 LA 31
  8. 8 PIT 9 LA 24
  9. 9 PIT 10 LA 30
  10. 10 PIT 7 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 21% of them, Rams 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+2.2%
Steelers by 9–166.1%
Steelers by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation2.4%
Rams by 1–826.2%
Rams by 9–1621.6%
Rams by 17+30.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 7, without the luck Steelers by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 53 yds missed · 67% expected
  • C. Boswell, 53 yds made · 75% expected
  • B. Maher, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. Maher, 51 yds missed · 69% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 8 for 76 yards, Rams 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:05 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +4% PIT +1.8 pts
Q1 0:26 Illegal Blindside Block on the Steelers (George Pickens), 15 yards +3% LA +1.0 pts
Q2 13:06 Intentional Grounding on the Rams (Matthew Stafford), 10 yards +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q2 13:01 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% PIT +1.7 pts
Q2 9:24 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Chandon Sullivan), 5 yards +1% LA +0.6 pts
Q2 4:00 Intentional Grounding on the Steelers (Kenny Pickett), 16 yards +6% LA +1.6 pts
Q3 11:54 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LA +0.9 pts
Q3 8:25 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% LA +1.6 pts
Q3 5:24 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +1.2 pts
Q3 3:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.7 pts
Q4 12:36 Taunting on the Steelers (George Pickens), 15 yards +9% LA +1.0 pts
Q4 8:14 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 7:20 Illegal Contact on the Steelers (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards +2% LA +0.2 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:40 B. Maher missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 22 of 36 from 45+ before +9% PIT LA: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedJ. Warren dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +10% LA PIT: Field goal
3 Q2 13:45 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% LA LA: Punt
4 Q2 8:12 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q2 4:00 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Steelers (Kenny Pickett), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1098 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +14% LA PIT: Punt
6 Q3 10:44 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:36 Taunting on the Steelers (George Pickens), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1159 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +9% LA LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyren Williams (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 52% · Rams 48%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
6.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 21% · Rams 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2023 games · Steelers · Rams

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