luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Eagles at Commanders, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 38–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 10:21 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 31 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 38
Washington Commanders 31

October 29, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +59 Eagles lucky · −59 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Commanders win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 48 WAS 26
  2. 2 PHI 28 WAS 17
  3. 3 PHI 20 WAS 14
  4. 4 PHI 36 WAS 34
  5. 5 PHI 17 WAS 19
  6. 6 PHI 21 WAS 26
  7. 7 PHI 12 WAS 20
  8. 8 PHI 20 WAS 32
  9. 9 PHI 20 WAS 37
  10. 10 PHI 20 WAS 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 41% of them, Commanders 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+9.2%
Eagles by 9–1613.0%
Eagles by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.9%
Commanders by 1–824.6%
Commanders by 9–1616.5%
Commanders by 17+16.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 7, without the luck Eagles by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Slye, 61 yds made · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 3 for 14 yards, Commanders 7 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Eli Ricks), 4 yards +3% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 13:47 Low Block on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% PHI +2.2 pts
Q2 0:06 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Daron Payne), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 10:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 31 yards +18% PHI +4.6 pts
Q3 9:26 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Sam Howell), 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 14:15 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 11:36 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 8:42 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% PHI +1.2 pts
Q4 8:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (John Bates), 8 yards +2% PHI +0.8 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:21 The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 31 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1559 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +18% PHI PHI: Turnover
2 Q3 10:16 The Eagles fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% WAS PHI: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:38 The Eagles converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:22 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +14% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:06 The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:10 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (John Bates), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +9% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:23 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedT. McLaurin dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 126 catchable balls before this +9% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 4:18 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 51% · Commanders 49%

Final margin
Eagles by 7
Luck in points
6.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 41% · Commanders 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Eagles · Commanders

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