luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · October 26, 2023–October 30

Week 8 2023: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the 49ers 31–17 in a game they win 14% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 8 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Broncos 24–9 vs Chiefs 30% 39% Lucky
Bengals 31–17 @ 49ers 38% 14% Lucky
Panthers 15–13 vs Texans 41% 44% Coin flip
Titans 28–23 vs Falcons 43% 48% Coin flip

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bengals W 31–17 @ 49ers 14% +86
2 Broncos W 24–9 vs Chiefs 39% +61
3 Eagles W 38–31 @ Commanders 41% +59
4 Seahawks W 24–20 vs Browns 43% +57
5 Panthers W 15–13 vs Texans 44% +56
6 Titans W 28–23 vs Falcons 48% +52
7 Chargers W 30–13 vs Bears 63% +37
8 Ravens W 31–24 @ Cardinals 65% +35
9 Jets W 13–10 @ Giants 68% +32
10 Cowboys W 43–20 vs Rams 85% +15
11 Saints W 38–27 @ Colts 88% +12
12 Lions W 26–14 vs Raiders 92% +8
13 Jaguars W 20–10 @ Steelers 92% +8
14 Vikings W 24–10 @ Packers 93% +7
15 Dolphins W 31–17 vs Patriots 96% +4
16 Bills W 24–18 vs Buccaneers 99% +1
17 Buccaneers L 18–24 @ Bills 1% −1
18 Patriots L 17–31 @ Dolphins 4% −4
19 Packers L 10–24 vs Vikings 7% −7
20 Steelers L 10–20 vs Jaguars 8% −8
21 Raiders L 14–26 @ Lions 8% −8
22 Colts L 27–38 vs Saints 12% −12
23 Rams L 20–43 @ Cowboys 15% −15
24 Giants L 10–13 vs Jets 32% −32
25 Cardinals L 24–31 vs Ravens 35% −35
26 Bears L 13–30 @ Chargers 37% −37
27 Falcons L 23–28 @ Titans 52% −52
28 Texans L 13–15 @ Panthers 56% −56
29 Browns L 20–24 @ Seahawks 57% −57
30 Commanders L 31–38 vs Eagles 59% −59
31 Chiefs L 9–24 @ Broncos 61% −61
32 49ers L 17–31 vs Bengals 86% −86