luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Texans at Panthers, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Texans 15–13, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 51 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 10 yards, worth 29 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Houston Texans 13
Carolina Panthers 15

October 29, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +56 Panthers lucky · −56 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 6, Panthers win 4.

  1. 1 HOU 25 CAR 7
  2. 2 HOU 21 CAR 8
  3. 3 HOU 13 CAR 3
  4. 4 HOU 17 CAR 10
  5. 5 HOU 7 CAR 3
  6. 6 HOU 20 CAR 17
  7. 7 HOU 21 CAR 23
  8. 8 HOU 7 CAR 12
  9. 9 HOU 3 CAR 14
  10. 10 HOU 9 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 56% of them, Panthers 44%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+9.3%
Texans by 9–1615.8%
Texans by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation6.8%
Panthers by 1–823.0%
Panthers by 9–1613.4%
Panthers by 17+7.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was Panthers by 2, without the luck Panthers by 2.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 46 yds made · 78% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 10 for 70 yards, Panthers 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:47 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 9 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 13:04 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 1 yard, wiping out the play +4% HOU +1.7 pts
Q1 7:45 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 7 yards +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 12:25 Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% CAR +3.8 pts
Q2 4:40 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Ka'dar Hollman), 5 yards, wiping out the play +10% CAR +2.4 pts
Q2 2:01 Encroachment on the Texans (Kurt Hinish), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +4% HOU +1.5 pts
Q3 6:29 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% CAR +2.7 pts
Q4 6:28 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q4 5:44 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 5:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 8 yards +2% CAR +0.4 pts
Q4 0:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 10 yards +16% CAR 0.0 pts
Q4 0:03 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 5 yards +4% CAR +0.7 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:25 Face Mask on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1412 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +10% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 4:40 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Ka'dar Hollman), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 461 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:39 The Panthers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:29 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q3 0:42 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +10% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:22 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +12% CAR CAR: Field goal
7 Q4 0:22 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% HOU CAR: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 E. Pineiro made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for himUnnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2573 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2573 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +29% CAR CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vonn Bell (CAR SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Yetur Gross-Matos (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Robert Woods (HOU WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (HOU DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 40% · Panthers 60%

Final margin
Panthers by 2
Luck in points
0.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 56% · Panthers 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Texans · Panthers

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