Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023
Buccaneers at Saints, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Saints 26–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Saints: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Saints were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:25 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 4, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 26 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Buccaneers about even · −13 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Saints win 1.
- 1 TB 37 NO 10
- 2 TB 45 NO 23
- 3 TB 34 NO 16
- 4 TB 29 NO 14
- 5 TB 23 NO 10
- 6 TB 20 NO 9
- 7 TB 20 NO 13
- 8 TB 24 NO 20
- 9 TB 22 NO 20
- 10 TB 17 NO 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Saints
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.04 | better by 0.14 |
| Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.10 | better by 0.25 |
| Saints offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | +0.07 | worse by 0.22 |
| Saints defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.03 | worse by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 87% of them, Saints 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 40.4% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 26.1% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Saints by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Grupe, 37 yds made · 92% expected
- B. Grupe, 32 yds made · 96% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 71% expected
- B. Grupe, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Buccaneers 11 for 91 yards, Saints 7 for 58 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:32 | Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers, 15 yards | +4% NO +1.1 pts |
| Q1 7:43 | False Start on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NO +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:05 | Intentional Grounding on the Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield), 12 yards | +4% NO +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:30 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (J.J. Russell), 10 yards | +1% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q1 2:16 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% TB +2.0 pts |
| Q1 1:22 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 8 yards | +4% TB +1.2 pts |
| Q2 5:25 | Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards | +5% TB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 2:17 | Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Saints, 5 yards | +2% TB +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:59 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Trey Palmer), 10 yards | +3% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | Face Mask on the Buccaneers, 15 yards | +3% NO +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:12 | Delay of Game on the Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:55 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Buccaneers, 5 yards | +2% NO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:10 | False Start on the Buccaneers (Deven Thompkins), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:25 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +2% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:17 | Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 5 yards | +2% NO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Bryan Bresee), 5 yards | 0% TB +0.9 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:09 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +6% TB | NO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:05 | The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +9% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 4:37 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedA. Prentice dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this | +7% TB | NO: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 10:00 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:40 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 5:25 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Saints (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2038 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 | +13% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 0:41 | The Saints fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% TB | NO: End of half |
| 8 | Q4 12:25 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedOffensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% TB | NO: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
- Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 87% · Saints 13%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 17
- Luck in points
- 10.7 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 6.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 87% · Saints 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Saints
More from Week 4 2023
- Lions at Packers DET 34–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Falcons vs Jaguars JAX 23–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 28–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans TEN 27–3 · replay 43% for the winner
- Broncos at Bears DEN 31–28 · replay 34% for the winner
- Rams at Colts LA 29–23 · replay 77% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 48–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Vikings at Panthers MIN 21–13 · replay 93% for the winner
- Steelers at Texans HOU 30–6 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 34–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 24–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 35–16 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Cowboys DAL 38–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jets KC 23–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Seahawks at Giants SEA 24–3 · replay 89% for the winner