luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · September 28, 2023

Lions at Packers, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Packers 34–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:44 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 15 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Detroit Lions 34
Green Bay Packers 20

September 28, 2023 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +6 Lions about even · −6 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 9, Packers win 1.

  1. 1 DET 36 GB 3
  2. 2 DET 33 GB 7
  3. 3 DET 40 GB 20
  4. 4 DET 41 GB 24
  5. 5 DET 37 GB 23
  6. 6 DET 34 GB 22
  7. 7 DET 34 GB 26
  8. 8 DET 36 GB 30
  9. 9 DET 26 GB 23
  10. 10 DET 22 GB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 94% of them, Packers 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+60.7%
Lions by 9–1622.5%
Lions by 1–810.4%
Level after regulation0.7%
Packers by 1–84.0%
Packers by 9–161.4%
Packers by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Packers: the final margin was Lions by 14, without the luck Lions by 19.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Carlson, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • A. Carlson, 50 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 8 for 70 yards, Packers 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:21 False Start on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.2 pts
Q2 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% GB +1.2 pts
Q2 14:07 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Dallin Leavitt), 10 yards +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 11:01 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% GB +1.4 pts
Q2 9:58 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.3 pts
Q2 7:51 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jerry Jacobs), 9 yards 0% GB +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Josiah Deguara), 10 yards +1% DET +1.1 pts
Q3 12:23 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Aidan Hutchinson), 5 yards 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q3 11:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 16 yards +2% GB +2.0 pts
Q3 5:04 Offensive Holding on the Lions (Jalen Reeves-Maybin), 10 yards +1% GB +1.2 pts
Q4 8:13 Leaping on the Packers (Quay Walker), 6 yards +1% DET +2.2 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% GB DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:04 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +14% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:30 The Packers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% GB GB: Punt
4 Q1 6:23 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:31 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% DET GB: Punt
6 Q2 14:22 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% GB GB: Turnover
7 Q2 14:15 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +3% GB DET: Field goal
8 Q2 14:10 R. Patterson made 33-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +5% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out · 0.5 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET SS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kerby Joseph (DET FS), out · 0.8 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 100% · Packers 0%

Final margin
Lions by 14
Luck in points
5.8 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 19.8
Replay with same day's form
Lions 94% · Packers 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Lions · Packers

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