luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Rams at Colts, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Colts 29–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:56 left): the Colts’ two-point try was good, worth 16 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Rams 29
Indianapolis Colts 23

October 1, 2023 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Rams −1

Luck index +23 Rams about even · −23 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Colts win 2.

  1. 1 LA 40 IND 9
  2. 2 LA 26 IND 3
  3. 3 LA 24 IND 6
  4. 4 LA 44 IND 30
  5. 5 LA 24 IND 13
  6. 6 LA 27 IND 19
  7. 7 LA 38 IND 33
  8. 8 LA 20 IND 18
  9. 9 LA 9 IND 13
  10. 10 LA 9 IND 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 77% of them, Colts 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+31.1%
Rams by 9–1620.4%
Rams by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Colts by 1–812.2%
Colts by 9–167.2%
Colts by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 6, without the luck Rams by 3.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Maher, 54 yds made · 61% expected
  • M. Gay, 47 yds missed · 79% expected
  • B. Maher, 46 yds missed · 76% expected
  • B. Maher, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • B. Maher, 48 yds missed · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 8 for 85 yards, Colts 8 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yards +5% LA +1.4 pts
Q1 8:40 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.4 pts
Q1 8:28 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Troy Reeder), 6 yards +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q1 7:03 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 15 yards +5% LA +2.6 pts
Q1 0:31 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% IND +1.9 pts
Q2 11:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 14 yards +2% IND +1.3 pts
Q2 1:50 False Start on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.3 pts
Q3 14:53 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% LA +1.7 pts
Q3 14:24 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 15 yards +1% IND +2.2 pts
Q3 10:32 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% IND +1.8 pts
Q3 4:39 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% IND +3.6 pts
Q3 1:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Kenny Moore), 15 yards +1% LA +3.3 pts
Q3 1:19 Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Puka Nacua), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% IND +3.0 pts
Q3 0:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +1.2 pts
Q4 14:16 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% LA +1.2 pts
Q4 13:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Russ Yeast), 15 yards +3% IND +1.4 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:26 The Rams converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q3 4:39 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% IND IND: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 3:08 The Colts converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:00 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +13% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:56 The Colts’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +16% IND IND: Punt
6 Q4 1:48 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% IND LA: Punt
7 Q4 0:19 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% IND LA: Punt
8 QOT 5:55 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bernhard Raimann (IND T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Darrell Baker (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jelani Woods (IND TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 67% · Colts 33%

Final margin
Rams by 6
Luck in points
2.6 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 3.4
Replay with same day's form
Rams 77% · Colts 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Rams · Colts

More from Week 4 2023