luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · October 12, 2023–October 16

Week 6 2023: who deserved to win

4 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the 49ers 19–17 in a game they win 18% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 6 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 19–17 vs 49ers 24% 18% Lucky
Jets 20–14 vs Eagles 32% 18% Lucky
Texans 20–13 vs Saints 44% 52% Coin flip
Commanders 24–16 @ Falcons 46% 27% Lucky

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 19–17 vs 49ers 18% +82
2 Jets W 20–14 vs Eagles 18% +82
3 Bengals W 17–13 vs Seahawks 27% +73
4 Commanders W 24–16 @ Falcons 27% +73
5 Texans W 20–13 vs Saints 52% +48
6 Cowboys W 20–17 @ Chargers 57% +43
7 Lions W 20–6 @ Buccaneers 58% +42
8 Ravens W 24–16 @ Titans 63% +37
9 Vikings W 19–13 @ Bears 67% +33
10 Jaguars W 37–20 vs Colts 83% +17
11 Chiefs W 19–8 vs Broncos 87% +13
12 Rams W 26–9 vs Cardinals 88% +12
13 Raiders W 21–17 vs Patriots 95% +5
14 Bills W 14–9 vs Giants 97% +3
15 Dolphins W 42–21 vs Panthers 97% +3
16 Panthers L 21–42 @ Dolphins 3% −3
17 Giants L 9–14 @ Bills 3% −3
18 Patriots L 17–21 @ Raiders 5% −5
19 Cardinals L 9–26 @ Rams 12% −12
20 Broncos L 8–19 @ Chiefs 13% −13
21 Colts L 20–37 @ Jaguars 17% −17
22 Bears L 13–19 vs Vikings 33% −33
23 Titans L 16–24 vs Ravens 37% −37
24 Buccaneers L 6–20 vs Lions 42% −42
25 Chargers L 17–20 vs Cowboys 43% −43
26 Saints L 13–20 @ Texans 48% −48
27 Falcons L 16–24 vs Commanders 73% −73
28 Seahawks L 13–17 @ Bengals 73% −73
29 Eagles L 14–20 @ Jets 82% −82
30 49ers L 17–19 @ Browns 82% −82