luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Packers at Jaguars, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Jaguars 30–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:55 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 19 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 30
Jacksonville Jaguars 27

October 27, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +11 Packers about even · −11 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 GB 42 JAX 6
  2. 2 GB 53 JAX 26
  3. 3 GB 45 JAX 23
  4. 4 GB 39 JAX 22
  5. 5 GB 40 JAX 26
  6. 6 GB 35 JAX 23
  7. 7 GB 44 JAX 34
  8. 8 GB 26 JAX 20
  9. 9 GB 22 JAX 19
  10. 10 GB 23 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 89% of them, Jaguars 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+53.4%
Packers by 9–1618.4%
Packers by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation1.6%
Jaguars by 1–86.0%
Jaguars by 9–162.9%
Jaguars by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 3, without the luck Packers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Little, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Little, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 3 for 20 yards, Jaguars 8 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:20 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 6:43 False Start on the Jaguars (Gabriel Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.8 pts
Q1 2:47 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 13:18 False Start on the Jaguars (Luke Farrell), 3 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.6 pts
Q2 11:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 21 yards +8% GB +3.0 pts
Q2 8:04 Illegal Shift on the Packers (Christian Watson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% JAX +1.3 pts
Q2 2:50 Illegal Motion on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +1.2 pts
Q2 1:12 Defensive Delay of Game on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 5 yards · pre-snap +11% GB +2.4 pts
Q3 9:15 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 0:21 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Daniel Thomas), 10 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:34 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedJ. Reed dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 110 catchable balls before this +12% JAX GB: Punt
2 Q2 1:12 Defensive Delay of Game on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 2247 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +11% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q3 13:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedD. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 21 catchable balls before this +8% GB JAX: Punt
4 Q3 7:55 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:55 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% GB JAX: Punt
6 Q4 2:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +14% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:02 B. McManus made 24-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +8% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Travis Etienne (JAX RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 64% · Jaguars 36%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 89% · Jaguars 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Packers · Jaguars

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