luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 28, 2024

Giants at Steelers, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Giants 26–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:16 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 18
Pittsburgh Steelers 26

October 28, 2024 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6

Luck index +24 Steelers about even · −24 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 23 PIT 10
  2. 2 NYG 26 PIT 23
  3. 3 NYG 20 PIT 22
  4. 4 NYG 31 PIT 34
  5. 5 NYG 13 PIT 20
  6. 6 NYG 13 PIT 23
  7. 7 NYG 21 PIT 34
  8. 8 NYG 16 PIT 31
  9. 9 NYG 0 PIT 20
  10. 10 NYG 14 PIT 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 24% of them, Steelers 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+3.1%
Giants by 9–165.7%
Giants by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation4.0%
Steelers by 1–825.6%
Steelers by 9–1623.0%
Steelers by 17+24.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 8, without the luck Steelers by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Joseph, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Joseph, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Joseph, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • C. Boswell, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Joseph, 48 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 11 for 65 yards, Steelers 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:40 Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the play +9% NYG +3.6 pts
Q1 6:19 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 2:59 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 1:21 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% PIT +1.7 pts
Q1 0:49 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 15 yards +6% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +1.2 pts
Q2 13:02 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% PIT +3.1 pts
Q3 8:39 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 6:59 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +1.2 pts
Q3 6:29 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q3 4:38 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q3 0:17 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +3% NYG +1.5 pts
Q4 12:19 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% PIT +1.7 pts
Q4 2:59 Defensive Holding on the Giants (D.J. Davidson), 5 yards 0% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 2:47 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:40 Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 14:20 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q2 13:02 Illegal Shift on the Giants (Malik Nabers), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 298 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q2 5:41 The Steelers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% PIT PIT: Punt
5 Q2 2:12 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +9% NYG PIT: Punt
6 Q2 1:16 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +13% NYG NYG: Field goal
7 Q3 4:58 Return touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +13% PIT PIT: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 3:04 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% PIT NYG: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Frazier (PIT C), out · 0.5 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Cordale Flott (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kayvon Thibodeaux (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamie Gillan (NYG P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 11% · Steelers 89%

Final margin
Steelers by 8
Luck in points
0.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 24% · Steelers 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Giants · Steelers

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