luckadjusted

2024 NFL season · October 24, 2024–October 28

Week 8 2024: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Ravens 29–24 in a game they win 1% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 8 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Browns 29–24 vs Ravens 29% 1% Lucky
Patriots 25–22 vs Jets 30% 9% Lucky
Cardinals 28–27 @ Dolphins 38% 93% Deserved
Rams 30–20 vs Vikings 41% 68% Deserved
Eagles 37–17 @ Bengals 43% 89% Deserved

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Browns W 29–24 vs Ravens 1% +99
2 Patriots W 25–22 vs Jets 9% +91
3 Broncos W 28–14 vs Panthers 63% +37
4 Lions W 52–14 vs Titans 64% +36
5 Rams W 30–20 vs Vikings 68% +32
6 Chargers W 26–8 vs Saints 76% +24
7 Steelers W 26–18 vs Giants 76% +24
8 Falcons W 31–26 @ Buccaneers 82% +18
9 Texans W 23–20 vs Colts 88% +12
10 Eagles W 37–17 @ Bengals 89% +11
11 Packers W 30–27 @ Jaguars 89% +11
12 Cardinals W 28–27 @ Dolphins 93% +7
13 Chiefs W 27–20 @ Raiders 93% +7
14 49ers W 30–24 vs Cowboys 95% +5
15 Bills W 31–10 @ Seahawks 96% +4
16 Commanders W 18–15 vs Bears 96% +4
17 Bears L 15–18 @ Commanders 4% −4
18 Seahawks L 10–31 vs Bills 4% −4
19 Cowboys L 24–30 @ 49ers 5% −5
20 Raiders L 20–27 vs Chiefs 7% −7
21 Dolphins L 27–28 vs Cardinals 7% −7
22 Jaguars L 27–30 vs Packers 11% −11
23 Bengals L 17–37 vs Eagles 11% −11
24 Colts L 20–23 @ Texans 12% −12
25 Buccaneers L 26–31 vs Falcons 18% −18
26 Giants L 18–26 @ Steelers 24% −24
27 Saints L 8–26 @ Chargers 24% −24
28 Vikings L 20–30 @ Rams 32% −32
29 Titans L 14–52 @ Lions 36% −36
30 Panthers L 14–28 @ Broncos 37% −37
31 Jets L 22–25 @ Patriots 91% −91
32 Ravens L 24–29 @ Browns 99% −99