luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 24, 2024

Vikings at Rams, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Vikings 30–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 20
Los Angeles Rams 30

October 24, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +32 Rams lucky · −32 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 MIN 33 LA 17
  2. 2 MIN 14 LA 7
  3. 3 MIN 16 LA 13
  4. 4 MIN 14 LA 16
  5. 5 MIN 10 LA 13
  6. 6 MIN 17 LA 23
  7. 7 MIN 13 LA 21
  8. 8 MIN 14 LA 26
  9. 9 MIN 14 LA 30
  10. 10 MIN 7 LA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 32% of them, Rams 68%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+3.9%
Vikings by 9–168.3%
Vikings by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.5%
Rams by 1–829.6%
Rams by 9–1621.9%
Rams by 17+14.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 10, without the luck Rams by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Reichard, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 9 for 50 yards, Rams 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:54 Face Mask on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 7 yards +2% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 5 yards +4% LA +1.7 pts
Q2 11:20 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 10:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Stephon Gilmore), 5 yards +5% LA +1.6 pts
Q2 10:05 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q2 8:23 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 7:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Jihad Ward), 5 yards +5% LA +1.5 pts
Q2 6:51 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 6:28 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 3:59 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:42 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 2 yards +1% LA +0.2 pts
Q3 14:25 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +4% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 4:04 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.8 pts
Q4 12:47 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 7:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 11 yards +4% LA +1.4 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:42 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +10% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:36 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% LA LA: Turnover
3 Q3 6:29 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% LA MIN: Field goal
4 Q3 4:58 K. Williams dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 65 catchable balls before this +7% MIN LA: Touchdown
5 Q4 15:00 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +16% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 Q4 12:57 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedJ. Nailor dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 28 catchable balls before this +16% LA MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 10:08 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +6% MIN LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:20 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (LA CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Steve Avila (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Troy Reeder (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 20% · Rams 80%

Final margin
Rams by 10
Luck in points
4.3 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 32% · Rams 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Vikings · Rams

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