luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Cowboys at 49ers, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cowboys 30–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 40 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:52 left): Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 23 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 24
San Francisco 49ers 30

October 27, 2024 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −5.5

Luck index +5 49ers about even · −5 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 DAL 20 SF 22
  2. 2 DAL 16 SF 21
  3. 3 DAL 27 SF 34
  4. 4 DAL 24 SF 34
  5. 5 DAL 14 SF 28
  6. 6 DAL 23 SF 40
  7. 7 DAL 17 SF 38
  8. 8 DAL 24 SF 48
  9. 9 DAL 13 SF 41
  10. 10 DAL 13 SF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 5% of them, 49ers 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+0.1%
Cowboys by 9–161.1%
Cowboys by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
49ers by 1–810.3%
49ers by 9–1619.3%
49ers by 17+65.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.7 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was 49ers by 6, without the luck 49ers by 20.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Carlson, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Carlson, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • A. Carlson, 41 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 30 yards, 49ers 9 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.5 pts
Q1 10:29 False Start on the 49ers (Chris Conley), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +1.3 pts
Q1 9:09 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Kyle Juszczyk), 10 yards +6% DAL +1.7 pts
Q1 2:01 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jake Ferguson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% SF +2.3 pts
Q2 11:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 9 yards +4% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 10:52 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 10 yards, wiping out the play +23% DAL +7.0 pts
Q2 6:32 Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:56 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys (Markquese Bell), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (George Kittle), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% DAL +2.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Cowboys, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SF 0.0 pts
Q3 12:57 Illegal Forward Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards +1% SF +0.5 pts
Q3 0:36 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the 49ers (Anders Carlson), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL 0.0 pts
Q4 11:57 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q4 11:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 19 yards +1% DAL +2.5 pts
Q4 6:23 Illegal Formation on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +1.1 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 28% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:15 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +11% SF SF: Field goal
2 Q1 1:06 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:52 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +23% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q2 6:35 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedD. Samuel dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 187 catchable balls before this +12% DAL SF: Field goal
5 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (George Kittle), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4903 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +11% DAL DAL: Punt
6 Q2 0:34 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% SF SF: Punt
7 Q3 11:36 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% SF DAL: Punt
8 Q4 3:05 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 54% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jauan Jennings (SF WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jake Moody (SF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL DE), out · 1.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 1% · 49ers 99%

Final margin
49ers by 6
Luck in points
14.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 20.7
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 5% · 49ers 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Cowboys · 49ers

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