Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024
Bears at Commanders, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?
The Commanders beat the Bears 18–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Bears.
An off day for the Bears: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Commanders were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:21 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 45 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 15 |
|---|---|
 Washington Commanders | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Commanders about even · −4 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 0, Commanders win 10.
- 1 CHI 20 WAS 23
- 2 CHI 20 WAS 26
- 3 CHI 27 WAS 37
- 4 CHI 31 WAS 44
- 5 CHI 12 WAS 27
- 6 CHI 16 WAS 34
- 7 CHI 9 WAS 31
- 8 CHI 9 WAS 35
- 9 CHI 3 WAS 33
- 10 CHI 3 WAS 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 43% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
39 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.05 | worse by 0.10 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.07 | worse by 0.01 |
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.12 | worse by 0.05 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.12 | better by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 4% of them, Commanders 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Commanders by 17+ | 71.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- A. Seibert, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Seibert, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- A. Seibert, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Seibert, 47 yds made · 74% expected
- A. Seibert, 51 yds missed · 68% expected
Penalties: Bears 8 for 60 yards, Commanders 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:40 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.3 pts |
| Q1 7:13 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:07 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:51 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CHI +2.9 pts |
| Q2 7:21 | Defensive Holding on the Bears (Elijah Hicks), 5 yards | +1% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:46 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Daniel Hardy), 15 yards | +2% WAS +1.2 pts |
| Q3 8:42 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 4 yards, wiping out the play | +9% CHI +4.4 pts |
| Q3 3:46 | Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% WAS +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:15 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 15 yards | +4% WAS +1.7 pts |
| Q4 14:54 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:50 | False Start on the Bears (Tarvarius Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WAS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 11 yards | +22% CHI +2.8 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Commanders’ chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:23 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedD. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 209 catchable balls before this | +8% WAS | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 4:12 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +10% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 8:42 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Commanders, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 14:09 | A. Seibert missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 16 of 27 from 45+ before | +7% CHI | WAS: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:21 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +45% WAS | CHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:49 | The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +11% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 2553 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 | +22% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:25 | The Bears’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +12% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jonathan Allen (WAS DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Jaquan Brisker (CHI SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 30% · Commanders 70%
- Final margin
- Commanders by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Commanders by 5.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 4% · Commanders 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · 
Bears · 
Commanders
More from Week 8 2024
- Vikings at Rams LA 30–20 · replay 68% for the winner
- Cardinals at Dolphins ARI 28–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers ATL 31–26 · replay 82% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 29–24 · replay 1% for the winner
- Packers at Jaguars GB 30–27 · replay 89% for the winner
- Colts at Texans HOU 23–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 25–22 · replay 9% for the winner
- Eagles at Bengals PHI 37–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Titans at Lions DET 52–14 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bills at Seahawks BUF 31–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Chargers LAC 26–8 · replay 76% for the winner
- Panthers at Broncos DEN 28–14 · replay 63% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 27–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Cowboys at 49ers SF 30–24 · replay 95% for the winner
- Giants at Steelers PIT 26–18 · replay 76% for the winner