luckadjusted

Week 8 2024 · October 27, 2024

Ravens at Browns, Week 8 2024: who deserved to win?

The Browns stole one. They beat the Ravens 29–24, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): the Ravens were stopped on 4th & 10, worth 26 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 24
Cleveland Browns 29

October 27, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +99 Browns very lucky · −99 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 46 CLE 7
  2. 2 BAL 43 CLE 10
  3. 3 BAL 52 CLE 23
  4. 4 BAL 34 CLE 10
  5. 5 BAL 37 CLE 15
  6. 6 BAL 29 CLE 10
  7. 7 BAL 32 CLE 16
  8. 8 BAL 41 CLE 29
  9. 9 BAL 17 CLE 9
  10. 10 BAL 23 CLE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 99% of them, Browns 1%. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+85.8%
Ravens by 9–1610.1%
Ravens by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.3%
Browns by 1–80.8%
Browns by 9–160.2%
Browns by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.4 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 5, without the luck Ravens by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds missed · 76% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 7 for 53 yards, Browns 7 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:20 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% CLE +1.2 pts
Q1 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% BAL +1.6 pts
Q2 8:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Trenton Simpson), 5 yards 0% CLE +0.3 pts
Q2 6:13 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 3:41 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Trenton Simpson), 10 yards +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q2 3:30 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 9 yards, wiping out the play +11% CLE +2.7 pts
Q2 1:20 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 9:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 29 yards +9% BAL +3.7 pts
Q3 5:56 False Start on the Ravens (Charlie Kolar), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.2 pts
Q3 1:51 Face Mask on the Browns (Mohamoud Diabate), 15 yards +6% BAL +1.7 pts
Q4 13:11 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 10:43 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +1.0 pts
Q4 4:55 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens (Charlie Kolar), 9 yards +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q4 1:08 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:48 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +13% CLE BAL: Field goal
2 Q2 1:14 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% BAL CLE: End of half
3 Q3 2:06 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +13% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:08 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedR. Bateman dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 80 catchable balls before this +12% CLE BAL: Missed field goal
5 Q4 13:03 J. Tucker missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 56 of 75 from 45+ before +13% CLE BAL: Punt
6 Q4 1:18 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +13% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:08 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +16% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +26% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • James Hudson (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (CLE LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jerome Ford (CLE RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (CLE LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Nate Wiggins (BAL CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 60% · Browns 40%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
7.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 99% · Browns 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2024 games · Ravens · Browns

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