luckadjusted

Week 18 2024 · January 5, 2025

Bills at Patriots, Week 18 2024: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Bills 23–16, but the Bills played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:14 left): the Bills converted 4th & 2, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 16
New England Patriots 23

January 5, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +74 Patriots very lucky · −74 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 7, Patriots win 3.

  1. 1 BUF 30 NE 6
  2. 2 BUF 33 NE 17
  3. 3 BUF 24 NE 10
  4. 4 BUF 23 NE 13
  5. 5 BUF 24 NE 17
  6. 6 BUF 22 NE 19
  7. 7 BUF 23 NE 21
  8. 8 BUF 31 NE 34
  9. 9 BUF 16 NE 23
  10. 10 BUF 3 NE 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 74% of them, Patriots 26%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+22.1%
Bills by 9–1622.5%
Bills by 1–827.3%
Level after regulation4.3%
Patriots by 1–815.1%
Patriots by 9–166.2%
Patriots by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 7, without the luck Patriots by 5.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 49 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Slye, 41 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Slye, 50 yds made · 61% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 6 for 35 yards, Patriots 7 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:27 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q1 1:25 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 14 yards +5% BUF +1.4 pts
Q2 10:48 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.8 pts
Q2 6:35 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% NE +1.2 pts
Q2 4:39 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Bills (Tyler Bass), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NE 0.0 pts
Q2 2:19 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q2 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q3 7:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% BUF +1.9 pts
Q3 6:18 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Dawuane Smoot), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NE +0.6 pts
Q3 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BUF +1.8 pts
Q3 1:00 Illegal Shift on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.8 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Bills (Keon Coleman), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q4 9:19 Intentional Grounding on the Patriots (Joe Milton), 15 yards +5% BUF +1.4 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:14 The Bills converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +12% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:29 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q3 14:13 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% BUF BUF: Punt
4 Q3 10:22 The Patriots fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% BUF NE: Field goal
5 Q3 7:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% BUF BUF: Punt
6 Q3 4:51 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q4 7:27 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:29 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% NE BUF: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Hunter Henry (NE TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Marcus Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NE SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ben Brown (NE G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dion Dawkins (BUF T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • DaQuan Jones (BUF DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 20% · Patriots 80%

Final margin
Patriots by 7
Luck in points
1.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Bills 74% · Patriots 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2024 games · Bills · Patriots

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