luckadjusted

Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024

Panthers at Bears, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Panthers 36–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bears were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:40 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 10
Chicago Bears 36

October 6, 2024 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4

Luck index +4 Bears about even · −4 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Bears win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 17 CHI 20
  2. 2 CAR 17 CHI 24
  3. 3 CAR 6 CHI 16
  4. 4 CAR 16 CHI 29
  5. 5 CAR 3 CHI 19
  6. 6 CAR 16 CHI 34
  7. 7 CAR 16 CHI 37
  8. 8 CAR 0 CHI 23
  9. 9 CAR 12 CHI 40
  10. 10 CAR 7 CHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 4% of them, Bears 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.1%
Panthers by 9–160.9%
Panthers by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation1.0%
Bears by 1–87.2%
Bears by 9–1617.4%
Bears by 17+70.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 26, without the luck Bears by 23.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
  • C. Santos, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 4 for 18 yards, Bears 5 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:59 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 11:30 Illegal Shift on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 11:27 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q3 14:25 Offensive Holding on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 9 yards, wiping out the play +1% CAR +2.8 pts
Q3 11:34 False Start on the Panthers (Ja'Tavion Sanders), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.6 pts
Q3 6:53 Clipping on the Bears, 14 yards, wiping out the play +1% CAR +2.8 pts
Q3 3:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 13 yards 0% CAR +1.7 pts
Q3 2:04 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 4:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 5 yards 0% CHI +2.4 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:35 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% CAR CHI: Punt
2 Q1 10:16 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +4% CHI CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:40 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +13% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:55 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:34 The Bears converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 4:23 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% CAR CHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:59 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CHI CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 1:04 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedJ. Sanders dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 6 catchable balls before this +4% CHI CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Patrick Scales (CHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Adam Thielen (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Derrick Brown (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 26
Luck in points
2.4 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 23.6
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 4% · Bears 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · Panthers · Bears

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