Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024
Jets vs Vikings, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Jets 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.
An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:30 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 47 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 New York Jets | 17 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +10 Vikings about even · −10 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 1, Vikings win 9.
- 1 NYJ 10 MIN 3
- 2 NYJ 15 MIN 17
- 3 NYJ 16 MIN 20
- 4 NYJ 13 MIN 20
- 5 NYJ 15 MIN 24
- 6 NYJ 13 MIN 26
- 7 NYJ 17 MIN 33
- 8 NYJ 7 MIN 27
- 9 NYJ 13 MIN 37
- 10 NYJ 13 MIN 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jets
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | −0.15 | −0.02 | worse by 0.12 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.16 | +0.01 | better by 0.17 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | −0.16 | +0.14 | worse by 0.29 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.15 | +0.06 | better by 0.20 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 10% of them, Vikings 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 2.4% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 50.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Reichard, 54 yds made · 64% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- W. Reichard, 53 yds made · 66% expected
- W. Reichard, 41 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Jets 8 for 76 yards, Vikings 11 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:15 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Javon Kinlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:43 | Illegal Contact on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 6 yards | +4% MIN +2.6 pts |
| Q2 7:59 | Illegal Shift on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% NYJ +4.2 pts |
| Q2 5:35 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 18 yards | +2% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:53 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 11 yards | +2% MIN +2.1 pts |
| Q2 4:49 | Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:06 | Defensive Holding on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 2 yards | +2% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q2 2:08 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 5 yards | 0% NYJ +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:39 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.2 pts |
| Q3 13:29 | Fair Catch Interference on the Vikings (Akayleb Evans), 15 yards | +4% NYJ +1.5 pts |
| Q3 10:13 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:07 | Roughing the Kicker on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yards | +6% NYJ +3.7 pts |
| Q3 0:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 24 yards | +5% MIN +2.2 pts |
| Q4 10:52 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Dallas Turner), 10 yards | +1% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:32 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:14 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Stephon Gilmore), 1 yard | +5% NYJ +1.4 pts |
| Q4 5:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings, 10 yards | +1% NYJ +0.9 pts |
Jets penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:24 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +8% NYJ | MIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 4:07 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% MIN | MIN: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 3:22 | The Vikings fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% NYJ | MIN: Opp touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 2:30 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams | +47% MIN | NYJ: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 9:54 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% NYJ | MIN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:17 | The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:05 | The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +10% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:49 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +32% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Dalton Risner (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Morgan Moses (NYJ T), out · 0.9 pts
- C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.7 pts
- Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 32% · Vikings 68%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 6
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 10% · Vikings 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · 
Jets · 
Vikings
More from Week 5 2024
- Buccaneers at Falcons ATL 36–30 · replay 69% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 41–38 · replay 51% for the winner
- Bills at Texans HOU 23–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Panthers at Bears CHI 36–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Commanders WAS 34–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 37–34 · replay 26% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 15–10 · replay 32% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers ARI 24–23 · replay 58% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 34–18 · replay 30% for the winner
- Packers at Rams GB 24–19 · replay 67% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 29–20 · replay 19% for the winner
- Cowboys at Steelers DAL 20–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Saints at Chiefs KC 26–13 · replay 71% for the winner