Week 5 2024 · October 6, 2024
Cowboys at Steelers, Week 5 2024: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Steelers 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Steelers.
An off day for the Steelers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:26 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 4, worth 45 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 20 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Cowboys about even · −16 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Steelers win 2.
- 1 DAL 33 PIT 6
- 2 DAL 36 PIT 16
- 3 DAL 30 PIT 13
- 4 DAL 16 PIT 3
- 5 DAL 14 PIT 3
- 6 DAL 13 PIT 6
- 7 DAL 17 PIT 13
- 8 DAL 24 PIT 21
- 9 DAL 14 PIT 17
- 10 DAL 6 PIT 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Steelers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 16%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.13 | better by 0.16 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.10 | better by 0.05 |
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.04 | better by 0.00 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.05 | worse by 0.24 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 84% of them, Steelers 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 34.8% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 23.4% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 25.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 10.4% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 4.1% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 1.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Aubrey, 55 yds made · 70% expected
- C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 88% expected
- B. Aubrey, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- B. Aubrey, 38 yds blocked · 91% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 11 for 87 yards, Steelers 8 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Damontae Kazee), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q1 11:09 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Mazi Smith), 5 yards | +2% PIT +1.0 pts |
| Q1 7:33 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:46 | Intentional Grounding on the Cowboys (Dak Prescott), 10 yards | +2% PIT +1.7 pts |
| Q1 6:03 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys (Linval Joseph), 5 yards | +1% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:34 | False Start on the Steelers (Darnell Washington), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:21 | False Start on the Steelers (Jonathan Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:50 | Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards | +4% DAL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 9:32 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 3:13 | False Start on the Steelers (Mark Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Tyrus Wheat), 15 yards | +3% PIT +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:32 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Nick Vigil), 10 yards | +4% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q3 4:23 | False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:07 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT +0.3 pts |
| Q3 1:27 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers, 5 yards | +6% DAL +1.9 pts |
| Q4 11:04 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards | +1% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:03 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 7 yards | +7% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:20 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Donte Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:20 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL 0.0 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:08 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +19% PIT | DAL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 2:25 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +10% DAL | DAL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 10:43 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +14% DAL | DAL: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 8:51 | B. Aubrey had a 38-yard field goal blockedKicks · 91% expected for him | +11% PIT | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:26 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +21% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:35 | The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:30 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +13% PIT | DAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:26 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +45% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Alex Highsmith (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
- James Daniels (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- MyCole Pruitt (PIT TE), out · 0.2 pts
- Micah Parsons (DAL DE), out · 1.4 pts
- Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Micah Parsons (DAL LB), out · 0.7 pts
- Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 74% · Steelers 26%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 7.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 84% · Steelers 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2024 games · 
Cowboys · 
Steelers
More from Week 5 2024
- Buccaneers at Falcons ATL 36–30 · replay 69% for the winner
- Jets vs Vikings MIN 23–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 41–38 · replay 51% for the winner
- Bills at Texans HOU 23–20 · replay 83% for the winner
- Panthers at Bears CHI 36–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Commanders WAS 34–13 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 37–34 · replay 26% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots MIA 15–10 · replay 32% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers ARI 24–23 · replay 58% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos DEN 34–18 · replay 30% for the winner
- Packers at Rams GB 24–19 · replay 67% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks NYG 29–20 · replay 19% for the winner
- Saints at Chiefs KC 26–13 · replay 71% for the winner