Chiefs 22 
Eagles 40 Deserved · Eagles win 84% of replays 2024 NFL season · February 9, 2025
Super Bowl 2024: who deserved to win
Every winner of Super Bowl earned it. The closest call: the Eagles won 40–22 and take 84% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Chiefs 22 Eagles 40 Deserved · Eagles win 84% of replays Super Bowl 2024 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 40–22 vs Chiefs | 46% | 84% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, super bowl
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eagles | W 40–22 vs Chiefs | 84% | +16 |
| 2 | Chiefs | L 22–40 @ Eagles | 16% | −16 |