luckadjusted

Super Bowl 2024 · February 9, 2025

Chiefs vs Eagles, Super Bowl 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Chiefs 40–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:16 left): the Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 16, worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 22
Philadelphia Eagles 40

February 9, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Chiefs −1.5

Luck index +16 Eagles about even · −16 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 KC 32 PHI 19
  2. 2 KC 28 PHI 24
  3. 3 KC 29 PHI 31
  4. 4 KC 10 PHI 16
  5. 5 KC 20 PHI 30
  6. 6 KC 28 PHI 41
  7. 7 KC 21 PHI 37
  8. 8 KC 20 PHI 39
  9. 9 KC 17 PHI 41
  10. 10 KC 10 PHI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 16% of them, Eagles 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+2.1%
Chiefs by 9–164.3%
Chiefs by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation1.6%
Eagles by 1–819.7%
Eagles by 9–1621.8%
Eagles by 17+41.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 18, without the luck Eagles by 10.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Elliott, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Elliott, 50 yds made · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 7 for 75 yards, Eagles 8 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% KC +4.2 pts
Q1 7:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 15 yards +11% PHI +2.8 pts
Q1 0:39 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% PHI +2.1 pts
Q2 8:42 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 3:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q2 2:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Nick Bolton), 15 yards +3% PHI +2.2 pts
Q2 1:35 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +1.6 pts
Q3 5:22 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC 0.0 pts
Q3 4:25 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PHI +2.0 pts
Q3 2:40 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Jaden Hicks), 10 yards 0% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 9:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Eagles (Milton Williams), 15 yards 0% KC +1.4 pts
Q4 8:05 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.6 pts
Q4 5:26 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% KC +3.1 pts
Q4 3:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +2.5 pts
Q4 2:54 Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 5 yards 0% KC +0.5 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:41 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 5468 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +10% KC KC: Punt
2 Q1 7:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3310 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:47 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% PHI PHI: Turnover
4 Q1 0:39 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 3176 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +6% PHI PHI: Turnover
5 Q2 14:21 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% KC PHI: Field goal
6 Q2 12:53 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% PHI KC: Punt
7 Q2 11:11 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 Q2 7:16 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +18% PHI KC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 13% · Eagles 87%

Final margin
Eagles by 18
Luck in points
7.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 10.1
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 16% · Eagles 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2024 games · Chiefs · Eagles