Texans 14 
Chiefs 23 Coin flip · Chiefs win 47% of replays 2024 NFL season · January 18, 2025–January 19
Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win
1 of 4 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Chiefs beat the Texans 23–14 in a game they win 47% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Texans 14 Chiefs 23 Coin flip · Chiefs win 47% of replays 
Commanders 45 
Lions 31 Coin flip · Commanders win 54% of replays 
Rams 22 
Eagles 28 Deserved · Eagles win 69% of replays 
Ravens 25 
Bills 27 Coin flip · Bills win 54% of replays Divisional round 2024 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 45–31 @ Lions | 26% | 54% | Coin flip |
| Bills | 27–25 vs Ravens | 46% | 54% | Coin flip |
Luck ranking, divisional round
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs | W 23–14 vs Texans | 47% | +53 |
| 2 | Commanders | W 45–31 @ Lions | 54% | +46 |
| 3 | Bills | W 27–25 vs Ravens | 54% | +46 |
| 4 | Eagles | W 28–22 vs Rams | 69% | +31 |
| 5 | Rams | L 22–28 @ Eagles | 31% | −31 |
| 6 | Ravens | L 25–27 @ Bills | 46% | −46 |
| 7 | Lions | L 31–45 vs Commanders | 46% | −46 |
| 8 | Texans | L 14–23 @ Chiefs | 53% | −53 |