luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Lions at Texans, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Texans 26–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 63 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:56 left): K. Fairbairn missed 58-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to the Lions. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:04 left): J. Bates made 52-yard field goal.

Final

Detroit Lions 26
Houston Texans 23

November 10, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Lions −4.5

Luck index +40 Lions lucky · −40 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 DET 40 HOU 17
  2. 2 DET 33 HOU 16
  3. 3 DET 13 HOU 0
  4. 4 DET 36 HOU 26
  5. 5 DET 19 HOU 13
  6. 6 DET 26 HOU 24
  7. 7 DET 17 HOU 19
  8. 8 DET 20 HOU 27
  9. 9 DET 14 HOU 27
  10. 10 DET 17 HOU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 60% of them, Texans 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+17.5%
Lions by 9–1616.5%
Lions by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation2.7%
Texans by 1–818.7%
Texans by 9–1612.0%
Texans by 17+9.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 3, without the luck Texans by 3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds made · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Bates, 58 yds made · 63% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 58 yds missed · 63% expected
  • J. Bates, 52 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 4 for 61 yards, Texans 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:23 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Lions, 5 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 7:08 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 3:51 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% DET +1.5 pts
Q2 10:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 41 yards +7% HOU +2.5 pts
Q2 7:47 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans (Danielle Hunter), 5 yards +3% DET +1.1 pts
Q3 6:14 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% DET +1.5 pts
Q3 4:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions (Ben Niemann), 10 yards +3% HOU +1.6 pts
Q4 10:07 False Start on the Texans (Cade Stover), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 494 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q4 5:11 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedA. St. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 326 catchable balls before this +13% HOU DET: Field goal
3 Q4 5:06 J. Bates made 58-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +13% DET DET: Field goal
4 Q4 4:17 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
5 Q4 2:00 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% DET HOU: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:56 The game turned hereK. Fairbairn missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 43 of 60 from 45+ before +23% DET –
7 Q4 1:40 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +15% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 J. Bates made 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +30% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 31% · Texans 69%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
6.0 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 60% · Texans 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Lions · Texans

More from Week 10 2024