luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 34–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:10 left): the Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 34
Dallas Cowboys 6

November 10, 2024 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −7.5

Luck index +1 Eagles about even · −1 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 10, Cowboys win 0.

  1. 1 PHI 49 DAL 7
  2. 2 PHI 36 DAL 3
  3. 3 PHI 47 DAL 17
  4. 4 PHI 26 DAL 0
  5. 5 PHI 33 DAL 10
  6. 6 PHI 29 DAL 10
  7. 7 PHI 24 DAL 7
  8. 8 PHI 23 DAL 10
  9. 9 PHI 13 DAL 3
  10. 10 PHI 17 DAL 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 99% of them, Cowboys 1%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+86.9%
Eagles by 9–169.1%
Eagles by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.3%
Cowboys by 1–80.9%
Cowboys by 9–160.2%
Cowboys by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.5 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 28, without the luck Eagles by 12.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 46 yds made · 89% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 7 for 49 yards, Cowboys 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:49 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards 0% PHI +0.2 pts
Q1 10:56 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.2 pts
Q1 3:10 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Johnny Wilson), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 11:20 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 9:21 Illegal Use of Hands on the Eagles (Quinyon Mitchell), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +0.3 pts
Q2 7:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 9 yards +3% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 3:04 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Caelen Carson), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.2 pts
Q2 1:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Jeremiah Trotter Jr.), 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 10:03 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Caelen Carson), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 2:22 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards 0% PHI +1.6 pts
Q3 1:19 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Moro Ojomo), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 2:50 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Marist Liufau), 15 yards 0% PHI +1.9 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:57 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 7:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:33 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% DAL DAL: Turnover
4 Q2 5:54 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% DAL DAL: Turnover
5 Q2 3:10 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% PHI DAL: Field goal
6 Q2 2:14 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DAL PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:56 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% PHI DAL: Field goal
8 Q2 1:28 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 6.8 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 28
Luck in points
15.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 99% · Cowboys 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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