luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 7, 2024

Bengals at Ravens, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 35–34 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 35 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:44 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 2, worth 33 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 34
Baltimore Ravens 35

November 7, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6

Luck index +23 Ravens about even · −23 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 CIN 34 BAL 20
  2. 2 CIN 24 BAL 20
  3. 3 CIN 23 BAL 25
  4. 4 CIN 22 BAL 26
  5. 5 CIN 10 BAL 16
  6. 6 CIN 33 BAL 42
  7. 7 CIN 13 BAL 26
  8. 8 CIN 25 BAL 41
  9. 9 CIN 14 BAL 35
  10. 10 CIN 20 BAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 23% of them, Ravens 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+3.6%
Bengals by 9–166.7%
Bengals by 1–811.2%
Level after regulation2.2%
Ravens by 1–825.2%
Ravens by 9–1620.2%
Ravens by 17+30.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Ravens by 1, without the luck Ravens by 7.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bengals 3 for 23 yards, Ravens 11 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:34 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 1 yard +8% CIN +2.0 pts
Q1 7:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 13 yards +6% CIN +2.1 pts
Q1 6:21 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BAL +1.5 pts
Q1 2:56 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q1 1:06 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 11:28 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 1:09 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% CIN +1.6 pts
Q3 11:08 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards +3% CIN +1.1 pts
Q3 9:08 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Josh Newton), 8 yards +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 2:29 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 1:11 Face Mask on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 15 yards +7% CIN +1.0 pts
Q4 1:06 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Broderick Washington Jr.), 12 yards +7% CIN +2.4 pts
Q4 0:54 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% BAL 0.0 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:01 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% BAL CIN: Punt
3 Q4 13:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +33% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:29 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +14% BAL CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +15% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:37 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:38 The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +18% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Likely (BAL TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 10% · Ravens 90%

Final margin
Ravens by 1
Luck in points
6.2 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 23% · Ravens 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Bengals · Ravens

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