luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Texans at Packers, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Texans 24–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): B. McManus made 45-yard field goal, worth 29 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Houston Texans 22
Green Bay Packers 24

October 20, 2024 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +14 Packers about even · −14 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 21 GB 15
  2. 2 HOU 20 GB 23
  3. 3 HOU 38 GB 42
  4. 4 HOU 17 GB 24
  5. 5 HOU 10 GB 20
  6. 6 HOU 21 GB 34
  7. 7 HOU 6 GB 22
  8. 8 HOU 13 GB 33
  9. 9 HOU 13 GB 37
  10. 10 HOU 10 GB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 14% of them, Packers 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.0%
Texans by 9–163.0%
Texans by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation1.5%
Packers by 1–820.9%
Packers by 9–1623.6%
Packers by 17+41.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Texans: the final margin was Packers by 2, without the luck Packers by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. McManus, 45 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 55 yards, Packers 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Arron Mosby), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 12:02 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Preston Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.6 pts
Q1 11:51 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.1 pts
Q1 11:48 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Texans, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards +6% GB +1.8 pts
Q2 9:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 30 yards +11% GB +1.6 pts
Q2 2:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Lukas Van Ness), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 1:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Keisean Nixon), 1 yard 0% HOU 0.0 pts
Q3 7:21 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.5 pts
Q4 14:07 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GB +0.8 pts
Q4 10:10 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Romeo Doubs), 10 yards +2% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 6:12 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kingsley Enagbare), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 0:27 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Will Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% GB +0.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:59 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% HOU GB: Punt
2 Q2 12:41 The Packers fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% HOU GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 30 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3407 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +11% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q3 13:37 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% GB HOU: Punt
5 Q3 1:56 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% GB HOU: Punt
6 Q4 2:42 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
7 Q4 1:44 R. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 162 catchable balls before this +27% HOU GB: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 B. McManus made 45-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 56 of 81 from 45+ before +29% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kamari Lassiter (HOU CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Azeez Al-Shaair (HOU LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 18% · Packers 82%

Final margin
Packers by 2
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Texans 14% · Packers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Texans · Packers

More from Week 7 2024