luckadjusted

Week 7 2024 · October 20, 2024

Raiders at Rams, Week 7 2024: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Raiders 20–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Rams were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:23 left): Return touchdown by the Rams, worth 25 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 15
Los Angeles Rams 20

October 20, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7

Luck index +12 Rams about even · −12 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 LV 23 LA 16
  2. 2 LV 17 LA 19
  3. 3 LV 17 LA 21
  4. 4 LV 6 LA 12
  5. 5 LV 7 LA 16
  6. 6 LV 14 LA 26
  7. 7 LV 13 LA 29
  8. 8 LV 3 LA 22
  9. 9 LV 6 LA 30
  10. 10 LV 17 LA 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 12% of them, Rams 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.8%
Raiders by 9–162.8%
Raiders by 1–87.0%
Level after regulation1.8%
Rams by 1–818.3%
Rams by 9–1622.1%
Rams by 17+47.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.5 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Rams by 5, without the luck Rams by 8.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 83% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Karty, 35 yds missed · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 10 for 80 yards, Rams 3 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:24 False Start on the Rams (Colby Parkinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q1 6:34 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LA +2.3 pts
Q1 5:15 Intentional Grounding on the Raiders (Aidan O'Connell), 11 yards +2% LA +0.9 pts
Q1 4:10 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +4% LA +0.8 pts
Q2 6:25 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.7 pts
Q2 0:13 False Start on the Raiders (Gardner Minshew II), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.2 pts
Q3 14:09 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Decamerion Richardson), 9 yards +2% LA +0.8 pts
Q3 8:31 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards +1% LA +0.2 pts
Q3 6:52 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +3% LA +1.5 pts
Q3 5:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 18 yards +4% LV +2.9 pts
Q3 1:06 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% LA +1.4 pts
Q4 10:50 Illegal Formation on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 2:50 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.1 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:20 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +12% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q2 10:57 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% LV LA: Punt
3 Q2 4:57 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% LA LV: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 1:23 The Raiders fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +25% LA LV: Field goal
5 Q3 8:35 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% LA LV: Field goal
6 Q3 1:06 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LA LA: Missed field goal
7 Q4 3:30 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% LA LV: Field goal
8 Q4 1:28 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (LA CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Puka Nacua (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Tyler Higbee (LA TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Steve Avila (LA G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonah Williams (LA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jakobi Meyers (LV WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dylan Parham (LV G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Epps (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malcolm Koonce (LV DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 14% · Rams 86%

Final margin
Rams by 5
Luck in points
3.5 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 8.5
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 12% · Rams 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2024 games · Raiders · Rams

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