luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Bears at Lions, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Bears 52–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Lions were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:38 left): the Bears converted 3rd & 9, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 21
Detroit Lions 52

September 14, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −6

Luck index 0 Lions about even · 0 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Lions win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 27 DET 34
  2. 2 CHI 16 DET 30
  3. 3 CHI 17 DET 36
  4. 4 CHI 13 DET 35
  5. 5 CHI 20 DET 47
  6. 6 CHI 13 DET 44
  7. 7 CHI 16 DET 50
  8. 8 CHI 3 DET 41
  9. 9 CHI 0 DET 44
  10. 10 CHI 9 DET 61

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 0% of them, Lions 100%. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.0%
Bears by 9–160.0%
Bears by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Lions by 1–80.9%
Lions by 9–163.5%
Lions by 17+95.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Bears: the final margin was Lions by 31, without the luck Lions by 33.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Bates, 55 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Bates, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 8 for 50 yards, Lions 3 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Bears (Cairo Santos), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q1 10:35 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 10:49 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 10:14 Face Mask on the Bears, 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% CHI +1.3 pts
Q2 4:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Monty Rice), 15 yards +2% CHI +1.2 pts
Q2 0:02 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Ruben Hyppolite), 0 yards 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q3 14:55 False Start on the Bears (D'Andre Swift), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.5 pts
Q3 5:47 Chop Block on the Bears, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% DET +2.2 pts
Q4 14:56 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Lions (Jake Bates), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI 0.0 pts
Q4 12:23 Roughing the Passer on the Lions (Brian Branch), 13 yards, wiping out the play 0% CHI +3.8 pts
Q4 11:45 Illegal Touch Kick on the Bears (Ruben Hyppolite), 0 yards 0% DET 0.0 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:43 K. Monangai dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +5% DET CHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:38 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:06 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% CHI DET: Punt
4 Q1 0:38 The Bears fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% DET CHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:19 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% DET CHI: Turnover
6 Q2 12:02 J. Bates missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 9 of 12 from 45+ before +6% CHI DET: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:14 Face Mask on the Bears, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CHI DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:28 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Levi Onwuzurike (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kiran Amegadjie (CHI T), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 31
Luck in points
2.2 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 33.2
Replay with same day's form
Bears 0% · Lions 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Bears · Lions

More from Week 2 2025