luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Falcons at Vikings, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Vikings 22–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Vikings: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 22
Minnesota Vikings 6

September 14, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +13 Falcons about even · −13 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Vikings win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 45 MIN 14
  2. 2 ATL 24 MIN 0
  3. 3 ATL 23 MIN 3
  4. 4 ATL 23 MIN 7
  5. 5 ATL 16 MIN 3
  6. 6 ATL 28 MIN 17
  7. 7 ATL 27 MIN 19
  8. 8 ATL 19 MIN 13
  9. 9 ATL 20 MIN 17
  10. 10 ATL 20 MIN 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Vikings

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

38 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.14 worse by 0.12
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed −0.20 +0.13 better by 0.34
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained −0.20 +0.12 worse by 0.32
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.06 better by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 87% of them, Vikings 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+47.5%
Falcons by 9–1621.9%
Falcons by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Vikings by 1–87.6%
Vikings by 9–162.9%
Vikings by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 16, without the luck Falcons by 13. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Romo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Reichard, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Romo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Reichard, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Romo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Romo, 54 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 5 for 29 yards, Vikings 8 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:16 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q1 11:27 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.4 pts
Q1 6:48 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Gabriel Murphy), 10 yards +1% ATL +0.9 pts
Q1 4:35 Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 5 yards +1% ATL +0.1 pts
Q1 2:00 False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 12:28 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 8:32 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 12:42 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q3 3:21 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% ATL +2.5 pts
Q3 2:01 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 7:29 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +1% MIN +1.1 pts
Q4 4:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jalen Redmond), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +2.4 pts
Q4 3:22 Illegal Formation on the Vikings (Ben Yurosek), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:26 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% ATL MIN: Punt
2 Q2 10:00 The Vikings converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q2 8:39 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q2 2:12 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% ATL MIN: Field goal
5 Q3 11:42 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q3 3:21 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% ATL ATL: Punt
7 Q3 2:56 A. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 167 catchable balls before this +7% ATL MIN: Punt
8 Q4 15:00 The Vikings fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ATL MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Addison (MIN WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 99% · Vikings 1%

Final margin
Falcons by 16
Luck in points
3.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 13.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 87% · Vikings 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Falcons · Vikings

More from Week 2 2025