Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025
Jaguars at Bengals, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Jaguars 31–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:54 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 25 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bengals. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:19 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 1.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 27 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Bengals lucky · −31 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Bengals win 7.
- 1 JAX 34 CIN 17
- 2 JAX 20 CIN 13
- 3 JAX 26 CIN 24
- 4 JAX 20 CIN 22
- 5 JAX 23 CIN 27
- 6 JAX 27 CIN 34
- 7 JAX 16 CIN 27
- 8 JAX 7 CIN 21
- 9 JAX 6 CIN 25
- 10 JAX 10 CIN 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 31% of them, Bengals 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 4.1% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 8.9% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 15.6% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 22.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- C. Little, 42 yds made · 86% expected
- C. Little, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 55 yards, Bengals 3 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:49 | Illegal Contact on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 5 yards | +1% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:10 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards | +2% JAX +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Illegal Forward Pass on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 5 yards | +2% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:32 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Yasir Abdullah), 15 yards | +5% CIN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 13:40 | Face Mask on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yards | +5% JAX +2.0 pts |
| Q4 1:54 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 25 yards | +19% CIN +3.3 pts |
| Q4 0:57 | Offensive Offside on the Bengals, 4 yards · pre-snap | +5% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q4 0:01 | Offensive Offside on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 0 yards · pre-snap | +11% CIN +0.4 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:57 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +17% CIN | JAX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 7:10 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +21% CIN | JAX: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 2:40 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +13% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 7:24 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +17% JAX | CIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 2:46 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +23% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:47 | The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedB. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 107 catchable balls before this | +22% CIN | JAX: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 1:54 | The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 25 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 48 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +19% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:19 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +33% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Montaric Brown (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 78% · Bengals 22%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 4
- Luck in points
- 8.6 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 4.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 31% · Bengals 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Jaguars · 
Bengals
More from Week 2 2025
- Commanders at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bills at Jets BUF 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Bears at Lions DET 52–21 · replay 100% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 41–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Rams at Titans LA 33–19 · replay 96% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 33–27 · replay 28% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 40–37 · replay 16% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 31–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints SF 26–21 · replay 77% for the winner
- Panthers at Cardinals ARI 27–22 · replay 87% for the winner
- Broncos at Colts IND 29–28 · replay 67% for the winner
- Eagles at Chiefs PHI 20–17 · replay 10% for the winner
- Falcons at Vikings ATL 22–6 · replay 87% for the winner
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- Chargers at Raiders LAC 20–9 · replay 75% for the winner