luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

49ers at Saints, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Saints 26–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): the Saints were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 16 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 26
New Orleans Saints 21

September 14, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: 49ers −3

Luck index +23 49ers about even · −23 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Saints win 2.

  1. 1 SF 30 NO 3
  2. 2 SF 26 NO 6
  3. 3 SF 37 NO 21
  4. 4 SF 34 NO 21
  5. 5 SF 34 NO 24
  6. 6 SF 20 NO 13
  7. 7 SF 27 NO 23
  8. 8 SF 33 NO 31
  9. 9 SF 21 NO 25
  10. 10 SF 23 NO 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 77% of them, Saints 23%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+28.4%
49ers by 9–1620.8%
49ers by 1–827.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Saints by 1–811.5%
Saints by 9–166.9%
Saints by 17+2.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 5, without the luck 49ers by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 40 yds missed · 88% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 46 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 5 for 40 yards, Saints 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:27 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% SF +1.6 pts
Q1 10:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Isaac Yiadom), 10 yards +5% SF +2.3 pts
Q1 8:42 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Fadil Diggs), 5 yards +3% SF +0.9 pts
Q1 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SF +2.1 pts
Q2 6:58 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Saints (Isaac Yiadom), 10 yards 0% SF +1.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Saints (Blake Grupe), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SF 0.0 pts
Q3 14:20 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Kool-Aid McKinstry), 5 yards +5% SF +2.6 pts
Q3 14:20 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 3:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Dee Winters), 15 yards +9% NO +2.0 pts
Q3 0:22 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Jake Tonges), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NO +2.1 pts
Q4 11:41 Illegal Contact on the 49ers (Upton Stout), 5 yards +3% NO +1.9 pts
Q4 9:44 Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Marques Sigle), 5 yards +2% NO +1.3 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:13 B. Grupe missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +8% SF NO: Punt
2 Q2 0:11 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Dee Winters), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 950 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +9% NO NO: Turnover
4 Q3 1:44 The Saints fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% SF NO: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:17 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:26 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% SF SF: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:50 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedJ. Jennings dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 166 catchable balls before this +11% NO SF: Punt
8 Q4 1:03 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% SF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Penning (NO T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Young (NO DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Foster Moreau (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Taysom Hill (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Saldiveri (NO G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 8.6 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Malik Mustapha (SF FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 32% · Saints 68%

Final margin
49ers by 5
Luck in points
0.6 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
49ers 77% · Saints 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 49ers · Saints

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