luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Panthers at Cardinals, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Panthers 27–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:36 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 37 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Carolina Panthers 22
Arizona Cardinals 27

September 14, 2025 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −7

Luck index +13 Cardinals about even · −13 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Cardinals win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 16 ARI 10
  2. 2 CAR 13 ARI 15
  3. 3 CAR 16 ARI 20
  4. 4 CAR 10 ARI 16
  5. 5 CAR 24 ARI 32
  6. 6 CAR 13 ARI 23
  7. 7 CAR 10 ARI 24
  8. 8 CAR 13 ARI 30
  9. 9 CAR 20 ARI 41
  10. 10 CAR 13 ARI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 13% of them, Cardinals 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.4%
Panthers by 9–162.8%
Panthers by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cardinals by 1–821.7%
Cardinals by 9–1625.9%
Cardinals by 17+39.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Cardinals by 5, without the luck Cardinals by 10.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Ryland, 47 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 83 yards, Cardinals 12 for 96 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:02 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Max Melton), 5 yards +3% CAR +1.4 pts
Q1 7:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Michael Jackson), 38 yards +5% ARI +4.9 pts
Q1 6:16 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CAR +1.2 pts
Q2 8:39 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q2 7:36 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 4:24 Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yards +2% CAR +1.9 pts
Q2 3:18 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 1:55 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Bam Martin-Scott), 10 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 12:46 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% CAR +1.6 pts
Q3 2:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 1 yard 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q4 12:42 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% ARI +1.5 pts
Q4 6:33 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 5:05 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 1:48 Encroachment on the Cardinals (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% CAR +0.3 pts
Q4 1:45 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 5 yards, wiping out the play +29% CAR +4.5 pts
Q4 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +26% ARI +1.9 pts
Q4 1:01 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Josh Sweat), 15 yards +7% CAR +1.0 pts
Q4 0:54 Intentional Grounding on the Panthers (Bryce Young), 10 yards +4% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 0:43 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Dante Stills), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.4 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Panthers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +37% ARI CAR: Turnover
2 Q1 9:01 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% ARI CAR: Field goal
3 Q2 12:56 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% CAR ARI: Punt
4 Q4 1:58 Onside kick recovered by the PanthersSpecial teams +19% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 1:45 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 15 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +29% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:09 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +26% ARI ARI: End of game
7 Q4 1:01 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Josh Sweat), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 4107 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +7% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:33 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +15% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Christian Jones (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 14% · Cardinals 86%

Final margin
Cardinals by 5
Luck in points
5.9 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 13% · Cardinals 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Panthers · Cardinals

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